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MANIFOLD
When will the next Portuguese parliamentary elections take place?
7
Ṁ255Ṁ2.4k
resolved Dec 3
100%96%
2024 (or earlier)
0.9%
2025
3%
2026 (as scheduled)

Portugal held elections in 2022. Mandates last until 2026, so that is the scheduled time for elections to take place.

However, if either the government resigns or if the President decides so, early elections are possible (and not a rare occurrence).

The question resolves to the date of the election, so that if early elections are decided during 2024 to take place in 2025, the market will resolve to 2025.

They will resolve to 2026 if they take place any time during 2026 even if before the predicted schedule

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From my understanding, the President has announced he will call for new elections but has refrained from doing so officially until the budget passes, so I will also not resolve this market yet