Will the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) exist at EOY 2025?
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I work there and I want to know about the future. The ministry is mostly responsible for Germany's official development aid.
The FDP have recently played with the idea of scrapping the ministry, and instead rolling it into the ministry for foreign affairs:
https://www.dw.com/de/warum-deutschland-sich-ein-entwicklungsministerium-leistet/a-70012517
Other countries have already done so, and I've heard it usually meant a decrease in development aid spending, and less political weight.
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What is Manifold?
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Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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