Will a novel computing medium enter consumer electronics by EYO 2030?

1kṀ750

2031

48%

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I will resolve YES if a novel computing medium (analog, optical, quantum, ect.) computer component enters market and is available and received by consumers by December 31, 2030.

A novel computing medium shall be defined as any computing machine not utilizing silicone (or other semiconductor) based transistors. The consumer device can be either a component (GPU, Accelerator Card, ect.), or a standalone device (Mobile Phone, Wearable, ect.), but must be purchasable for $2000, 2023 purchasing power.

Additionally Resolves YES, if any of the below markets resolve YES.

https://manifold.markets/henryw/will-the-first-optical-computer-be?r=THVjYXNUaGVsZW4

https://manifold.markets/AidenPetersen/will-we-see-analog-accelerators-in

Consumer Electronics

Computer hardware

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I believe it'l resolve NO. Alternative computing schemes (mostly light-based) are too far out at the moment. Non silicon semiconductors seem likely, though

I believe this will resolve YES, since Moore's law is reaching it's physical limitations, and the demand for computational power (including novel solutions for reducing power consumption and space requirements) is still increasing.

https://physicsworld.com/a/moores-law-further-progress-will-push-hard-on-the-boundaries-of-physics-and-economics/

https://ainowinstitute.org/publication/policy/compute-and-ai