Will a novel computing medium enter consumer electronics by EYO 2030?
24
1kṀ750
2031
48%
chance

I will resolve YES if a novel computing medium (analog, optical, quantum, ect.) computer component enters market and is available and received by consumers by December 31, 2030.

A novel computing medium shall be defined as any computing machine not utilizing silicone (or other semiconductor) based transistors. The consumer device can be either a component (GPU, Accelerator Card, ect.), or a standalone device (Mobile Phone, Wearable, ect.), but must be purchasable for $2000, 2023 purchasing power.

Additionally Resolves YES, if any of the below markets resolve YES.

https://manifold.markets/henryw/will-the-first-optical-computer-be?r=THVjYXNUaGVsZW4

https://manifold.markets/AidenPetersen/will-we-see-analog-accelerators-in

Computer hardware
Consumer Electronics
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