Will a novel computing medium enter consumer electronics by EYO 2030? | Manifold

Will a novel computing medium enter consumer electronics by EYO 2030?

Plus

23

Ṁ745

2031

48%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

I will resolve YES if a novel computing medium (analog, optical, quantum, ect.) computer component enters market and is available and received by consumers by December 31, 2030.

A novel computing medium shall be defined as any computing machine not utilizing silicone (or other semiconductor) based transistors. The consumer device can be either a component (GPU, Accelerator Card, ect.), or a standalone device (Mobile Phone, Wearable, ect.), but must be purchasable for $2000, 2023 purchasing power.

Additionally Resolves YES, if any of the below markets resolve YES.

https://manifold.markets/henryw/will-the-first-optical-computer-be?r=THVjYXNUaGVsZW4

https://manifold.markets/AidenPetersen/will-we-see-analog-accelerators-in

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Computer hardware

#Consumer Electronics

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

I believe it'l resolve NO. Alternative computing schemes (mostly light-based) are too far out at the moment. Non silicon semiconductors seem likely, though

I believe this will resolve YES, since Moore's law is reaching it's physical limitations, and the demand for computational power (including novel solutions for reducing power consumption and space requirements) is still increasing.

https://physicsworld.com/a/moores-law-further-progress-will-push-hard-on-the-boundaries-of-physics-and-economics/

https://ainowinstitute.org/publication/policy/compute-and-ai

Related questions

Will consumer electronics feature room temperature ambient pressure superconductors before 2025?

Will there be a mass-produced reversible computer on the market by 2032?

Will most computers still run on silicon-based hardware in 2100?

Will Non-invasive Brain Computer Interfaces Become Common By 2040?

Will the first optical computer be sold on the consumer market before 2025?

Will a magnonics-based computing device (SSD, CPU, RAM) be available to be purchased online by EOY 2028?

Will a Spintronics-based computing device (SSD, CPU, RAM) be available to be purchased online by EOY 2028?

Will most digital entertainment be AI generated by 2032?

Will most digital entertainment be Al generated by 2045?

Will a fully functional brain-computer interface be commercially available by 2030?

Related questions

Will consumer electronics feature room temperature ambient pressure superconductors before 2025?

Will a magnonics-based computing device (SSD, CPU, RAM) be available to be purchased online by EOY 2028?

Will there be a mass-produced reversible computer on the market by 2032?

Will a Spintronics-based computing device (SSD, CPU, RAM) be available to be purchased online by EOY 2028?

Will most computers still run on silicon-based hardware in 2100?

Will most digital entertainment be AI generated by 2032?

Will Non-invasive Brain Computer Interfaces Become Common By 2040?

Will most digital entertainment be Al generated by 2045?

Will the first optical computer be sold on the consumer market before 2025?

Will a fully functional brain-computer interface be commercially available by 2030?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules