Conditional on NATO declaring a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine, will a nuclear weapon be launched in combat in 2022? | Manifold

Conditional on NATO declaring a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine, will a nuclear weapon be launched in combat in 2022?

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resolved Jan 17

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Given that this question about a NATO No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine resolves positively: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10052/nato-enforced-nfz-in-ukraine/ This market resolves to YES in the event that a nuclear weapon is confirmed to be launched for combat, non-testing purposes before Jan 1, 2023, anywhere in the world. Mar 7, 5:47pm: N.B. Market resolves to N/A if NATO does not declare any No-Fly Zone over Ukraine, decided by resolution of https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10052/nato-enforced-nfz-in-ukraine/

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#🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine-Russia war

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N/A. Added to description

Just to clarify, are you resolving N/A or No if NATO does not declare any no fly zone over Ukraine?

"any" may include tiny section, for example tiny segment along Polish border to protect refugees.

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