Will Sam Altman have a significant PR blunder before the beginning of 2024?
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resolved Jan 5
Resolved
NO

This will resolve as YES iff a single instance of Sam's actions result in negative media attention from multiple large news organisations across the political isle before the 1st of January 2024, and NO otherwise

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predicted NO

Resolution please @Luca3f84!

predicted YES
bought Ṁ500 of NO

Wading into controversial topics! Bet this won't go anywhere though.

@chrisjbillington taking a stance against antissemitism isn't controversial!

predicted NO

@MP I wish that were unequivocally true.

predicted NO

@MP It's not just anti-antisemitism, he's accusing another group of antisemitism. Also what @oh said.

taking a bold stance against bold stances

predicted NO

@chrisjbillington Relatedly, all Israelis & Jews who answered my recent poll (n=11) say that the quantity of antisemitism and hatred of Israel on Manifold is better than (9) or comparable to (2) similar sites. This community rocks!

predicted NO

@MP When it's framing the contemporary American left as being antisemitic for their criticism of Israel, it is indeed quite controversial.

predicted NO

@oh Let's not conflate those two things. Hating Israel is not antisemitism per se.

predicted NO

@IsaacKing Exactly, which is why I listed them separately.

@IsaacKing Sam doesn't say that the American left is antisemitic, he says that antisemitism on the American left is bad. And there are definitely enough antisemitic sentiments on the left (tankies, Muslim apologia, the "holy crap have you read Osama Bin Laden's letter to America?" tiktok phenomenon, etc.) that it's fair to call it out.

I see no indication that Sam is conflating antisemitism with criticism of Israel. There's no evidence in the tweet that he isn't conflating them either, but when have people ever thrown up a PR shitstorm over something so insignificant? 🙃

bought Ṁ50 of YES

More attention to his dishonesty is coming to light. https://archive.is/dGc8V This doesn't seem far from a piece clearly questioning his character.

predicted YES

@Utilitus And about employees signing the letter threatening to follow Altman to Microsoft, https://x.com/aisafetymemes/status/1732809562141405265, "It was sort of a bluff that ultimately worked" and "Sam Altman is not the best CEO, but millions and millions of dollars and equity are at stake."

bought Ṁ50 NO at 19%
bought Ṁ50 of NO

@HedShock This isn't a PR blunder, though. It's just an anonymous source disagreeing with the narrative that OpenAI employees were 100% behind Sam Altman for non-money reasons.

bought Ṁ1,000 of NO

@HedShock From a PR perspective, Sam comes out of this incident looking pretty good IMHO.

The statements about him being dishonest I'm sure are true, but they're not attributed to named sources and these articles aren't written as hit pieces - they more have an analytical tone just about what led to the firing.

His employees stood behind him despite whatever dishonesty their was, and his reputation seems mostly intact. He won.

I'm sure he's a sneaky dude, and now more people know it, it's true. But the bad news about him is unsourced stuff that everyone seems to want to brush under the rug, which is not really what you think of when you think of a PR blunder (which you would generally imagine relates to something he did or said publicly, that gets amplified rather than downplayed).

bought Ṁ20 of YES

@ASomewhatRudeParakeet His PR blunder is his alleged character issues. They've been mostly ignored so far but with clearer information coming out, he could soon have some clearly negative attention, even if he overall comes out ok.

predicted NO

@HedShock Even if we did get multiple articles this month that really dug into Altman's (alleged, but probable) duplicity that qualified as across-the-aisle negative media attention, I'm not sure that would resolve this market. It wouldn't be a single instance causing the negative media, just a string of actions adding up to a pattern.

predicted YES

please sam tweet something problematic

predicted YES

@Luca3f84 can you say how you're thinking about this as the market creator?

@jacksonpolack a move orchestrated by the bod against Sam is not his fault. public consensus is he has handled pr laudably from the onset of this situation

predicted YES

@Luca3f84 even if the public consensus is overwhelmingly positive for him, this market would still resolve YES if "multiple large news organisations across the political isle" give him some negative coverage due to an action of his, right?

@KnowNothing stop trying to cheese it. Yes, that's correct but it wouldn't resolve as yes if they were blatant hit pieces with unsubstantiated claims.

There is a hypothetical situation in which the narrative purported by the media contradicts that that is held by our communities and in such a case I would be on the side of waiting until it is clear what is actually happening.

I should also note that I am neutral on Sam and impartial to the way this goes

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