https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rI147CJqX4
Dr. Tom Explosionsandfire (probably not his real name) is an Australian PhD physicist and Youtube chemist who has has had a longstanding program of synthesizing cubane, possibly functionalized cubane. At the end of the linked video, he vows to release a video in which he successfully synthesizes cubane by the end of 2023.
The market will resolve YES if Tom does in fact manage to both synthesize cubane and release a video confirming and detailing his having done so by the end of 2023, and NO if he does not. In the spirit of kindness and avoiding overnarrowness the market will resolve YES if he synthesizes any cubical carbon skeleton without synthesizing actual literal cubane.
The market will resolve to some outcome by 2024-2-1. Lorxus, the author, explicitly affirms the possibility, however slight, that this may result in a misresolution.
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Clarifications:
-Tom Ex&F's handling of the Chemiolis sample will not count either way, regardless of the result. He must synthesize the cubical carbon skeleton out of hardware store trash reactants and their resultants himself.
-He must confirm the presence of an unaided-eye visible amount of cubane in appropriate form for temperature and pressure (white/pale crystal/colorless liquid etc) using chromatography or NMR spectroscopy. Boiling-point tests or color observation will obviously not suffice, nor will solubility tests/precipitation.
Naively, and without looking into detail like step difficulty or reasons for high/low speed or anything, he's done 6/8 steps in 988 days from Aug 5 2020 to Apr 20 2023, leaving 2 more in 329 days, so an expected date of Mar 14 2024. But I'm optimistic because of 1. last video's vibes, 2. all the accumulated know-how about materials, equipment, procedures, the literature, what is or isn't a dead end, etc.
@bildramer that's true, but at this point he looks to be about to try to run his entire synthesis from the beginning. it's still not looking good!