Will the winner of Tontine come from Polybius's Tontine Discord server?
Basic
3
Ṁ270
2100
92%
chance

https://tontine.cash/ is a MSCHF game. On 2021-12-27, 7141 players each paid $10 into a central pot and have been required to check in at least once a day by midnight EST/EDT or else be eliminated. The last remaining player will win the pot. As of 2023-12-31, 312 players remain, of which 36 are in Polybius's Tontine Discord server.

The market resolves YES if the winning Tontine player is one of those 36, and early to NO if they all have lost the game at any point, due to forgetting, user error, and/or failure of any safeguards. It resolves N/A if the game is canceled for any reason, and YES if one or more players from the server intentionally technically lose Tontine as part of a negotiated agreement in which they receive their accepted allotment of the final split.

The supposed close date is a placeholder; the market will almost surely resolve early.

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Ṁ1,000
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Arbitrage opportunity: https://manifold.markets/Lorxus/will-lorxus-the-author-of-this-mark?r=TG9yeHVz , given that I am in the server.

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