Will the Tontine surviving player count be 446 (1/16) or less as of 2023-5-18?
Will the Tontine surviving player count be 446 (1/16) or less as of 2023-5-18?
20
370Ṁ7610
resolved May 18
Resolved
NO

https://tontine.cash/ is a MSCHF game. On 2021-12-27, 7141 players each paid $10 into a central pot and have been required to check in at least once a day by midnight EST/EDT or else be eliminated. The last remaining player will win the pot. As of 2023-3-25, 493 players remain.

The market resolves YES if the living count is 446 (1/16 of the original population - 4 half lives) or less as of 12:05 AM EST on 2023-5-18, and NO if the living count is 447 or more at that time. It resolves early to YES if the living population should fall to or below 446 before that time, and to N/A if the game is canceled for any reason.

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2y

71.4K

TOTAL
POOL

448

LIVING

6.6K

DEAD

507

DAYS

predictedNO 2y

Two multi-death days in 5 days. That isn't 40% as I am cherry-picking start date.

Another in 4 days 25% might be more sensible estimate. However does high deaths mean the following day is likely to have low deaths?

predictedYES 2y

@ChristopherRandles I'm modelling them as entirely separate, with no correlation between a high/low death day and then the next day.

2y

That's surprisingly close.

predictedNO 2y

@Fedor 3 out of nowhere was not what I was expecting!

2y

@Lorxus 2 now! we're at 448 living

2y

@firstuserhere No, I meant 3 players lost today. Which is really surprising at this point!

predictedYES 2y

@Lorxus Yeah, it's not that low chance, like I think it's been the case 2 out of the past ~40 days or so. But still bigger than usual.

2y

3 deaths in 1 day has to up the probability

2y

It has been a very slow week for Tontine deaths.

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