https://tontine.cash/ is a MSCHF game. On 2021-12-27, 7141 players each paid $10 into a central pot and have been required to check in at least once a day by midnight EST/EDT or else be eliminated. The last remaining player will win the pot. As of 2023-9-10, 370 players remain.
The market resolves YES if the living count is 325 (1/22 of the original population) or less as of 12:05 AM EST on 2023-12-31, and NO if the living count is 326 or more at that time. It resolves early to YES if the living population should fall to or below 325 before that time, and to N/A if the game is canceled for any reason.
1,000π Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | αΉ240 | |
| 2 | αΉ69 |
@ChristopherRandles That's... kinda weird! We haven't seen swings that large for months and months, easily. I wonder if it means that at this point, we're seeing a lot of people who joined in groups/pairs starting to drop out mostly together?
@Lorxus I haven't a clue as to why really. That may well be as good an explanation as any.
If the rate of drop out is high then that give more incentive to hold on and the rate might go down. If the rate is low then it will take a long time so more likely to drop out. While that might cause it to tend to settle to a steady rate, a stable system, you can also have an unstable system where a small swing tends to cause larger and larger swings. However, this seems more like it has switched from stable to unstable in the middle of the graph.