https://manifold.markets/Lorxus/during-which-week-will-the-tontine-94d02dc94f31?r=TG9yeHVz

During which ~week will the Tontine surviving player count reach 350?

https://tontine.cash/ is a MSCHF game. On 2021-12-27, 7141 players each paid $10 into a central pot and have been required to check in at least once a day by midnight EST/EDT or else be eliminated. The last remaining player will win the pot. As of 2023-7-14, 400 players remain. The market resolves…

If you found it interesting trading on this market, I recommend following the Tontine Prophecy tag!

@Lorxus huh, 3 in one day

@jeremiahsamroo I was not even a little prepared for that to happen.

@Lorxus RIP league standing lmao

I wonder if there was a power outage or something. I imagine we're getting into the numbers where almost all of the remaining players are using scripts

@jeremiahsamroo I still put about a 7% chance of a day occuring where 3 players lose in a day. It's not usual, but it can happen.

@jeremiahsamroo I do wonder what causes players to drop out most.

Forgetting if done manually

Loss of power for player

Loss of ISP coverage (do most remaining players have access to more than one ISP each day?)

Unusual circumstances e.g. on remote holiday with no internet availability

Loss of power for script

Loss of Internet for script

Other script issue e.g. server maintenance/replacement takes longer than expected

Others?

@Fedor Closer to 3-4% IMO.

@ChristopherRandles Those, and:

• Just plain giving up

• Being bought out by someone else

• The bot they bought failing

• Forgetting to check in again just past midnight, if they're on the "check in manually twice every two days" plan

@Lorxus 6 of 3 or more in last two months seems more like 7-10%

2 of 3 or more in last month seems more like 5-7%

1 of exactly 3 in last month may be 3-4%

@ChristopherRandles two 3s and a 4 in the last 50ish days

@jeremiahsamroo I doubt we'll ever know why. I will say that there's at least a fair few people still explicitly refusing to script or even set alarms. I don't understand those people.

The population count thread, for counting population. Please do not reply to this comment. Please do like it, so that it will show up at the top of Best.

6/1 431
6/2 431
6/3 430
6/4 429
6/5 428
6/6 428
6/7 427
6/8 426
6/9 424
6/10 424
6/11 423
6/12 423
6/13 422
6/14 422
6/15 422
6/16 421
6/17 421
6/18 421
6/19 420
6/20 416
6/21 416
6/22 415
6/23 412
6/24 412
6/25 412
6/26 412
6/27 412
6/28 412
6/29 411

6/30 410

7/1 410

7/2 410

7/3 408
7/4 407
7/5 406
7/6 406
7/7 405
7/8 404 (ruling out option 1)
7/9 404
7/10 404
7/11 403
7/12 403
7/13 403
7/14 400 (resolves to option 2)
7/15

It's down to 412 living players on 2023-06-23, so precisely one player lost per day. Continuing at the same rate, that gets us down to July 5th for being at 400 players.

@Gabrielle I would argue that the rate has slowed down a little from 1 player lost per day, as more consistent players remain.

@Fedor There are I think two effects on the long term rate:

1. There are fewer players to forget to log in.

2. The players that have forgotten are the more likely one to forget so that the more consistent players remain as you said.

I think this means the rate will slow down more than an exponential trend.

However if Gabrielle is referring to a short term rate presumably 13 June to 23 June 10 players lost in 10 days, then

a) short term rates probably don't change very quickly. (So I think Fedor point has some but minor relevance.)

b) One single 10 day rate can be subject to a lot of sampling error, you probably want to look at lots of different 10 day periods and probably also some other length periods. (I think this is a more relevant point eg last 10 days only 4 players lost)

If there's stats on population anyone wants, feel free to ask me here.

@Lorxus 2 in last week so 5 weeks to go :P

a bargain at 0.5% ?!

@ChristopherRandles Could well be so! I don't know what the future of Tontine holds, or I wouldn't be here doing this!