Will Twitter fire >=50% of employees before April 2023?
Resolved
YES

Resolution criteria: trustworthy news sources claiming >=50% of employees fired, which should be ~3750 (unless the number of employees on Wikipedia turns out to be wrong). Starting date is today

Oct 30, 9:31am: Will Twitter fire >50% of employees before April 2023? → Will Twitter fire >=50% of employees before April 2023?

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#NameTotal profit
1
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Gabrielle
Ṁ1,015
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Gigacasting
Ṁ769
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Adam
Ṁ500
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Jack
Ṁ430
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Nick Restifo
Ṁ417
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Gabrielle avatar
Gabrielle
is predicting YES at 95%

From the Bloomberg article that it references:

"An internal counter of employees currently reads 2,750, one person said, though some resignations and cuts may still be in the process of being counted. Twitter had more than 7,000 employees before Musk took over in late October."

Lauro avatar
Lauro Langosco
is predicting YES at 94%

When will this resolve?

Gabrielle avatar
Gabrielle
is predicting YES at 93%

NYTimes reporting that at least 1200 employees left, putting them well over the 50% mark. This should resolve YES. @Lorenzo

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/18/technology/elon-musk-twitter-workers-quit.html

Endovior avatar
Endovior
is predicting YES at 92%

Does constructive dismissal count as firing?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/twitter-offices-closed-1.6655881

"Hundreds of Twitter employees are estimated to be leaving the beleaguered social media company following an ultimatum from new owner Elon Musk that staffers sign up for "long hours at high intensity," — or leave."

If the deal is that everyone is being asked to work longer and harder for the same salary or quit, and they mostly decide to quit, that's a staff-reducing decision that's analogous to firing, to the point that it's legally considered termination. This is almost certainly why severance is being offered; otherwise they'd get sued a lot, and lose. The question is whether a business practice that's legally equivalent to termination counts for the purposes of this market.

LivInTheLookingGlass avatar
Olivia
is predicting YES at 91%

@Endovior I would think so

Gabrielle avatar
Gabrielle
is predicting YES at 82%

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/11/16/musk-twitter-email-ultimatum-termination/

Washington Post reporting that employees have to agree by end of day Thursday to be part of “new Twitter” and work extreme hours or be fired. I think we can say safely that this will put them over the 50% line, though of course we should wait for confirmation that people were actually fired because of this.

Gabrielle avatar
Gabrielle
is predicting YES at 95%
SamuelRichardson avatar
Samuel Richardson
is predicting YES at 95%

@Gabrielle It sounds like they just locked everybody out of the buildings: https://twitter.com/ZoeSchiffer/status/1593391604785504257

NickRestifo avatar
Nick Restifo
bought Ṁ50 of YES

Reporting that another 20 were fired for allegedly questioning Musk in company slack

https://mastodon.social/@taylorlorenz/109349236848981264

Gabrielle avatar
Gabrielle
is predicting YES at 74%

It sounds like we've at least had 3738 employees fired in the initial layoff, then another 20 now, which would be more than the 3750 number we had earlier, though also some people were re-hired?

Adam avatar
Adam
is predicting YES at 74%

@Gabrielle I think people being fired and rehired are still people who were "fired"; I think we probably shouldn't double count them in the unlikely event that some of the 20 were rehired-fired people, but otherwise, fair game to me.

NickRestifo avatar
Nick Restifo
bought Ṁ100 of YES

Reporting that 4,400 contract employees were eliminated yesterday

https://twitter.com/CaseyNewton/status/1591848844899540992?s=20&t=t1ar06X5EezHd4CHjtaEOw

Adam avatar
Adam
is predicting YES at 58%

@kazoo "After laying off 50 percent of the company’s employees..."
engadget is reporting that the criteria here is already true. Is engadget not a 'trustworthy news source"? Or is it really alone in reporting that this already happened?

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall
is predicting NO at 62%

@Adam I think it's rounding to a whole number. More precise reporting seems to have this a bit below 50%. But unclear.

kazoo avatar
Trent Yazzo
is predicting YES at 65%

@MartinRandall Do contractor count to total or this not people?

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall
is predicting NO at 65%

@kazoo Not employees in normal definitions.

Also, if we include contractors in the numerator we also have to include them in the denominator, and I don't have numbers for how many contractors indirectly worked on Twitter in 2022.

kazoo avatar
Trent Yazzo
is predicting YES at 65%

@MartinRandall hmm, since inconclusive maybe we can resolve it n/a. i however am happy how ever, any lay off is scary for all us! yikes

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall
is predicting NO at 65%

@kazoo If it was my market I'd resolve 50% or N/A and also curse Elon for laying off precisely enough people to make market resolution absurdly difficult.

Gabrielle avatar
Gabrielle
is predicting YES at 65%

We at least shouldn’t resolve before the designated end date - another round of layoffs is plausible and would result in a YES.

Lorenzo avatar

@MartinRandall @Gabrielle Agree with both!

jack avatar
Jack
is predicting YES at 75%

Lol wow - https://twitter.com/CaseyNewton/status/1589075543420325888

Multiple sources and Twitter Blind chats now saying that the company has begun to reach out to some people it laid off yesterday asking them to come back. Whoops!

BenjaminCosman avatar
Benjamin Cosman
is predicting NO at 75%

@Lorenzo For the purposes of this market, if someone is fired and immediately rehired does it still count as being fired? (I assume yes?) I love how reality always manages to throw fun edge cases at these markets 🙂

jack avatar
Jack
is predicting YES at 75%

@BenjaminCosman I also think it definitely should count.

Lorenzo avatar

@jack Lol I think it depends on the specifics? Were they actually technically fired and rehired? Or just some miscommunication where they were told they were fired while they weren't?

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall
is predicting NO at 67%

@Lorenzo I think the way this normally works is that everyone involved pretends it was a miscommunication so that there isn't as much paperwork.

DavidPennock avatar
David Pennock
is predicting NO at 65%

@BenjaminCosman Agreed -- defining a verifiable outcome completely crisply is surprisingly hard

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall
is predicting NO at 72%

At least some of the 3738 appear to have resigned.

https://twitter.com/AndrewHaigh/status/1588417701222879233

Gabrielle avatar
Gabrielle
is predicting YES at 72%

"roughly 50% of the workforce will be impacted"

@Lorenzo does this count as >= 50%? It doesn't seem like we'll get public information on if this is strictly 50% or more of employees, and since Twitter is now a private company, we might not hear anything before April 2023.

kazoo avatar
Trent Yazzo
bought Ṁ15 of YES

@Gabrielle May be tough to resolve correctly then. N/A?

Lorenzo avatar

@kazoo I'll do a best guess based on the information available until April.
If >=50% is more likely than <50% I'll resolve as YES, otherwise NO

Lorenzo avatar

https://twitter.com/hashtag/lovewhereyouworked lots of people getting fixed. Hard to tell if it's already 50%

Lorenzo avatar

@Lorenzo *fired

VivaLaPanda avatar
VivaLaPanda
bought Ṁ300 of YES

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/03/technology/twitter-layoffs-elon-musk.html

LincolnQuirk avatar
Lincoln Quirk
sold Ṁ59 of NO

Note that the number cited in that doc is 3738, which may be just below 3750. So if that ends up being the number, I assume this won't resolve YES at that time (but might resolve if there are any additional layoffs later?)

VivaLaPanda avatar
VivaLaPanda
is predicting YES at 71%

@LincolnQuirk Unless the number on Wikipedia is wrong, which is plausible

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall
bought Ṁ100 of NO

@VivaLaPanda Could be wrong in either direction. I'd put this market at 50%.

Lorenzo avatar

@MartinRandall I think it's unlikely that there would be less than 12 firings before April. Unless we find a better number I will resolve with 3750

VivaLaPanda avatar
VivaLaPanda
is predicting YES at 42%

If Stripe can lay off 14% with no Musk and a much better profit model, Twitter can lay off 50%

https://manifold.markets/VivaLaPanda/will-stripe-announce-layoffs-by-the#QH7Jh89d63LYHysbE2eI

Daconomist avatar
Daconom
is predicting NO at 45%

Even if Musk plans to lay of half of Twitter’s staff, I guess it will be a very slow process.

Predictor avatar
Predictor 🔥
is predicting NO at 45%

@Daconomist I'm thinking more of a Thanos snap this Friday

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall
bought Ṁ100 of NO

Twitter has 1,500 moderators so even firing all moderation staff doesn't get to 50%. Engineers are going to find other jobs instead of being fired.

AndrewHartman avatar
Andrew Hartman
bought Ṁ50 of YES

This strikes me as being similar to the nonrival question on it.

kazoo avatar
Trent Yazzo
is predicting YES at 39%
citrinitas avatar
Anton
bought Ṁ100 of YES

Selling some secondhand insider speculation to the market

DavidSocha avatar
David Socha
bought Ṁ20 of NO

Depending on standard of "fired" used in resolution, seems likely IMO. Maybe will approach 50% with attrition plus firings but very unlikely that half of the workforce would be fired outright

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall
bought Ṁ100 of NO

@DavidSocha There were a lot of departures before the takeover was finalized, so 50% attrition from now seems unlikely. Especially given that Musk wants to add a pvp mode.

Lorenzo avatar

@MartinRandall
> There were a lot of departures before the takeover

Do you have a source? How much is a lot?

DavidSocha avatar
David Socha
is predicting NO at 37%

Ah, meant to say "unlikely". Agreed that this amount of turnover seems very improbable especially just from firings

jack avatar
Jack
bought Ṁ10 of YES

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/29/technology/twitter-layoffs-musk-jobs.html

Elon Musk planned to begin laying off workers at Twitter as soon as Saturday

The scale of the layoffs could not be determined.

Ross Gerber, the chief executive of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management, said he was told by Jared Birchall, the head of Mr. Musk’s family office, that layoffs were coming at Twitter. “I was told to expect somewhere around 50 percent of people will be laid off,” he said.

Adam avatar
Adam
bought Ṁ25 of YES

bullish

MartinRandall avatar

Can you add resolution criteria, such as what data source you will use, from what date you will start counting, and what denominator you will use.

Lorenzo avatar

@MartinRandall Added some resolution criteria, do you think they could be improved?

MartinRandall avatar

@Lorenzo Looks great!