Will Gallup, Aella OR authoritative pollster show >1.25x OR <0.8x ratio between Gen Alpha M VS F non-cis rates in 2035?
1
1kṀ5
2035
50%
chance

i.e. would resolve Yes if the self-reported Gen Slpha M non-cis rate is 10% and the self-reported Gen Alpha F non-cis rate is 14%, OR vice versa; would resolve No if the self-reported Gen Alpha M non-cis rate is 10% and the self-reported Gen Alpha F non-cis rate is 12%, OR vice versa.

Resolves N/A if no clear sufficiently-authoritative survey data exists.

Context 1: https://open.substack.com/pub/aella/p/the-dropping-nonbinary-rates-paper?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=2bgcsx

Context 2: https://news.gallup.com/poll/656708/lgbtq-identification-rises.aspx

Context 3 [ my article ]: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XH463zpuJi75ynMzj/uncursing-civilization

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20% of what? Current rates, future rates, or share of the population?

@MugaSofer Concurrent difference between M rate non-cis and F rate non-cis, I'll edit to try to clarify.

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