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MANIFOLD
Will USA break its continuous human presence in outer space before 2040?
1
Ṁ1kṀ100
2039
45%
chance

Will there be a moment in which all living US human persons are located below the Kármán line? Resolves NO on Jan 1st, 2040 if no such moment has been reported by (or deduced from) a reliable source.

If the United States dissolves or its identity is disputed, this question also refers to nationals of major successor states concentrated within the 2025-era territory.

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Inspired by reports that SpaceX will retire Crew Dragon by 2030, with no alternative ready yet.