Will Atlas stop running fellowships in 2024?
resolved Nov 21
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Heed, frustrated non-Atlassians! For you shall suffer no more. There is a new hope on the horizon, in the shape of a happy shrimp. Thousands of them.

ATLASt, an independent Atlas replica will rise from the ashes of the one who came before. Altigas! It shall raise the world (in terms of positive valence), as the mythical Atlas does physically.
Atlas is dead. But he doesn't have to remain dead. We can resurrect him.

predicted YES

Resolves YES, see update on https://www.atlasfellowship.org/

predicted YES

@JonasVollmer Sorry to hear this, and thanks for all of your work running this program :)

@JonasVollmer Very sad, but understandable

predicted YES

@Logaems How will you resolve this market if:

  1. The Atlas Fellowship continues but becomes a completely different program, e.g. weekend workshops for college students

  2. The Atlas Fellowship doesn't run in 2024, but runs an alum event (so doesn't disband completely)

  3. The Atlas Fellowship runs no events whatsoever in 2024 but the legal entity still exists

@JonasVollmer 1. This depends on whether the program itself is named Atlas Fellowship, or at least has "fellowship" in its name (resolves No) - By "not running", I referred to the program (I equated the program with the organization)

  1. Yes, unless the event is a "fellowship"

  2. Yes

predicted NO

(For new non-Atlas bettors)

Evidence for Yes and No summed up:


  • Jonas Vollmer (probably) made a semi-official statement (which must not be copypasted), which says that it is "pretty unlikely" that they will run a cohort next year.

  • Many known Atlas fellows and staff on Manifold hold Yes bets.

  • Jonas Vollmer sold his No shares and still bought Yes at 97% (his prediction seems to be 97%) - sold some Yes shares at 96%


  • A "leaked" Discord screenshot from an unknown Telegram group contained a message by Jonas Vollmer, which was asking fellows to come up with application question ideas for the "next batch of fellows". However, no one knows how old or legitimate it is.

  • Since the last cohort, new staff and instructors appeared on the web page.

  • Recently (beginning of October), some fellows sold their Yes shares and some bought No shares

  • Even more recently (middle of Ocotber), after calrifying the resolution critera, many known Atlas fellows and staff started selling large amounts of Yes shares and buying No shares

This message will be edited when new information is found.

predicted NO

@Logaems Ok, now the evidence for No can be summed up as "sunk cost fallacy".

edit: idk what to believe

predicted NO

I believe (I am sunk-cost-fallacious and wishfully-thinking 😭 )

What evidence is there that this will disband?

predicted YES

@ZacharyKleinfa41 this comments section (from your perspective)

predicted NO
Comment hidden
Vikram ValameboughtṀ400YES
predicted YES
predicted NO

@VictorLJZ acided

predicted NO

old information

IMPORTANT INFORMATION: To any non-trolling Yes holders (if you exist), I would like to point out that Jonas Vollmer, one of the organizers of the Atlas fellowship, has become the largest No holder today!

Edit: now 2nd

@Logaems well, he's just put limit orders up to 90% YES.


@JonasVollmer :( atlas is awesome, sad stuff.


predicted NO
predicted NO

@ElijahBodden5 Well, I have enjoyed my short few minutes of being 1st in my league.

predicted NO

@ElijahBodden5 Goddamn meta-trolling indeed... I am utterly confused as to what the truth is as well.

predicted YES

@Logaems Try 41st ε/̵͇̿̿/'̿'̿ ̿(◡︵◡)

predicted NO
predicted NO

@ElijahBodden5 Oh no suicide.

predicted YES

@Logaems jkjk, dw about it

predicted YES