This market concerns the net change in non-farm payrolls (NFP) for September 2025, a crucial metric of US economic health that is facing a unique confluence of disruptive factors.

The report's release was postponed from its original October 3rd date due to the US government shutdown. That's created a data vacuum for markets and means the September figures will likely be released in close proximity to the October report, setting the stage for potential market volatility as two months of critical data are absorbed in a condensed period.

A significant political dimension complicates the situation. The administration sacked the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Commissioner, then proposed and withdrew a nominee widely seen as partisan and unqualified. As a result, the agency's independence is under intense scrutiny, raising concerns about its influence on the upcoming report.

This sets up a central conflict for this market: Leading economic indicators, such as the negative ADP private payrolls report, suggest a weak or contracting labour market. However, the political environment has introduced questions about the integrity of the final number. Will the official report reflect the underlying economic data, or will it diverge amid this pressure?

Resolution Criteria:

• This market will resolve to YES if the "Employment Situation" report for September 2025, upon its initial release by the BLS, shows a positive net change in total non-farm payroll employment (>0).

• This market will resolve to NO if the initial report shows a zero or negative net change in employment (≤0).

(Resolution will be based on the initial data release only; subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the report is not released by December 31, 2025, the market will resolve to N/A.)