The Thesis

Elon Musk’s security costs on Earth are spiraling. Between his political roles and high-profile status, he requires a small army to stay safe in public. This market bets on the "Natural Moat" logic: Once Starship V3 hits its stride, the marginal cost of keeping him in a private orbital habitat is actually lower than the cost of protecting him on the ground.

In space, your "security" is provided by physics - the barrier to entry for a threat is a $10M+ rocket launch.

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if, during February 2029, the Marginal Daily Operating Cost (MDOC) to maintain Elon Musk in Space is lower than his 2025 Terrestrial Baseline.

• "Space" = Any location >100km altitude (LEO, Moon, Mars).

• "Cheapest" = $MDOC(space) < $184,000 USD/day.

• Timing: He must spend at least 14 days in space during Feb 2029 to qualify.

If Elon is deceased before Feb 1, 2029: This market resolves N/A unless he has been "placed" in space (remains/memorial) and the daily maintenance of that orbit is the primary cost being measured.

The Benchmarks (Simplified)

1. Security Detail

• Earth: ~$160,000/day. (24/7 armed detail, armoured convoys, lead cars).

• Space: ~$1,000/day. (You don't need bodyguards when you're the only one with a key to the airlock).

2. Transport & Logistics

• Earth: ~$15,000/day. (Amortised Gulfstream G650ER usage + crew).

• Space: ~$110,000/day. (Based on a $13M marginal Starship launch cost, amortised over a 120-day stay).

3. Life Support & Insurance

• Earth: $1,000/day. (Standard HVT insurance + food/staff).

• Space: ~$40,000/day. (Specialized "Orbital Health" premiums + O2/CO2 scrubbing).

Total Daily Cost Target: Space must stay under $184,000/day to win.

Verification & Dispute Rules

• Primary Sources: Tesla/SpaceX SEC filings (Proxy statements: "All Other Compensation"), and SpaceX-published marginal launch costs.

• Secondary Sources: If official data is withheld, we will use a consensus of 3 analysts (e.g., Quilty Space, BryceTech, or Payload).

• The "Secret Service" Rule: If a government agency (e.g., USSS) provides security for free, that cost is EXCLUDED from the math. We only care about what he/his companies pay.

Context for Traders

The "Yes" bet is essentially a bet on Starship Reusability. If SpaceX is still "expending" ships or the refurbishment takes months, the amortised transport cost will stay at $500k+/day, making Earth much cheaper. The "No" bet is a bet on Insurance. Lloyd’s of London isn't known for "cheap" premiums for billionaires sitting on 5,000 tons of liquid oxygen.