Will Scott Alexander be on Mastodon in any capacity before EoY 2023?
19
162
370
resolved May 21
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if an account is submitted to this market which can confirm to be run by Scott Alexander, officially represent Astral Codex 10, or any similar thing

Otherwise resolves NO at close

Note: I will reward an as-yet-undetermined bounty to whoever puts the account in the comments. I will also resolve YES if he uses a non-Mastodon platform that federates cleanly with Mastodon

Get Ṁ200 play money

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predicted YES

@LivInTheLookingGlass Would you mind resolving this?

predicted YES

How would one confirm this?

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

@CooperDaniels This is his account, btw. I forget where he announced it but I'm positive it is him.

https://schelling.pt/@scottalexander

predicted YES

@CooperDaniels @LivInTheLookingGlass Just a nudge to resolve. And perhaps deliver on the bounty that was offered :)

predicted YES

This market should be equal to:

+ the product of these three

- the product of all of those

At time of posting, that is ~45.7%

There's some arbitration opportunity with https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-tumblr-support-following-from and https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-tumblr-support-following-exter (Alexander has a Tumblr, so if both of those resolve YES, this should also resolve YES, unless he also delete his Tumblr)

bought Ṁ25 of YES

At time of posting, implied probability from that is ~38%

predicted YES
predicted NO

@LivInTheLookingGlass I didn't think this market was about an existing website implementing integration with Mastodon, I thought it was about Scott having to take action to create an account there.

predicted YES

@IsaacKing From description
> I will also resolve YES if he uses a non-Mastodon platform that federates cleanly with Mastodon

predicted YES

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