Will I vote for a national-level Republican in my lifetime?
Basic
28
1.1k
2101
15%
chance

Resolves either when I place such a vote or die

This market is likely correlated with the OR of the following:

  • The Republican party essentially remade such that they aren't horribly discriminatory to at minimum groups I care about

  • I become one of those mythical detransitioners AND break up with my partner

  • The United States becomes a one-party state AND I still live there

  • I become so obscenely wealthy that it corrupts me

Presumably related

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I think the Republican Party is more likely to collapse entirely or splinter into multiple parties (in which case this presumably resolves NO eventually) than it is to suddenly shift its platform to the left. The Republicans have consistently been the more conservative party since at least 1932 (arguably earlier.) This would be like the Tories and Labour switching party platforms, at this point.

@evergreenemily I don't think it would suddenly shift its platform to the left, but I imagine that the parties' platforms will change over time to eventually become unrecognizable. After all, both parties are already unrecognizable compared to what they started as, and they have switched places in certain areas like racial issues. The question is how soon this will occur: Will the Republican Party become so unrecognizable compared to what it is today that its politics would be tolerable within Olivia's lifetime?

I think this is underestimating the incredible variance in politics in a fairly short time, even moreso now than ever in history.

Lives are very long. The parties today stand for different things than they stood for in 1900, why expect them to stand for the same things they do now in 2100?

predicts NO

@BuyNakSellDoof I don't! Not fully at least. But honestly I think the party will dissolve before it changes at this point. I don't see how a reversal could happen like it did last century

>trans flag

No lol

@Gnossia that's literally what the description says lol

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