How is this market not at the same percentage as Trump being the Republican nominee? Does someone see Trump saying "I lost"?

@justifieduseofFallibilism do you see Trump conceding?

I thought I had a bad case of TDS but y'all are hopeless. 98% of the 52 losing candidates conceded. Of course the 2% is Trump and we've updated a lot on that. But that's just one election. 97% is much too confident.

@ElmerFudd This is basically just ‘will trump be nominated,’ adjusted up by the fact that anyone who isn’t Trump is likely to lose even if they were nominated. What other Republican candidate do you think could get nominated and win?

@ShadowyZephyr Trump's not obligated to deny the election again.

Shouldn't this be pretty much the same (in fact, a tiny bit higher) than Trump being the Republican candidate? Why is that one around ~70% while this one was ~60%? Does anyone see a scenario where Trump says that he lost?

This is ripe for a further conditional on whether Trump is the nominee.

My impression was 2016 and 2020 were closer (measured in e.g. vote count required to change the outcome) than you'd statistically expect most elections to be, so maybe that makes this feel more likely than it is.

If the winner of the 2024 Presidential election is a Democrat, the Republican candidate will refuse to concede defeat, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition