Will the losing candidate in the 2024 presidential election refuse to concede defeat?
Nov 5
For the purpose of this question, the losing presidential candidate in 2024 (the "losing candidate") is the major party candidate projected to come in second place in the electoral college vote count by both the AP and Fox News (see fine print). This question resolves to YES if the losing candidate refuses to concede after at least two weeks following both the AP and Fox News projecting their opponent to win the election AND neither the AP or Fox News retracted their projection in that time. For the purpose of this question, a concession is a clear statement from the candidate projected to lose that they have acknowledged their defeat, and that they accept the results of the election, as projected by the major media outlets. The concession must not be retracted within 48 hours. Otherwise, this question resolves to NO. Fine print: For the purpose of this question, a network is said to have "projected" a winner if they make some authoritative statement saying that the candidate has won the election, or will win the election once the votes are counted. Crucially, the network does not actually have to use the language of "projected" but as long as their reporting follows this definition, it counts as a projection.
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@MatthewBarnett How about Al Gore in 2000, would this market have resolved YES in that case?

predicts YES

@BoltonBailey Was there a two week period during which both Fox News and the AP projected Bush but Al Gore did not acknowledge his defeat? I literally don't know, and am not old enough to remember.

@MatthewBarnett Hmm, wikipedia only says FOX and doesn't mention AP, and says that they retracted later that night, so I guess not.

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Roughly speaking: 50% chance Trump wins the GOP primary, 50% he loses the general if he does, and >90% chance he refuses to concede if so. Add to that, the chance a non-Trump republican wins the primary and loses the general is ~25%, and perhaps 50% they'd refuse to concede conditional on that. Perhaps a 5-10% chance a Dem loses and refuses to concede, mostly due to something legitimately contentious (eg 2000-type situation). This all works out to ~40%.
@Matthew Yes, absolutely. I think Trump met the conditions I outlined above.
To clarify, would Donald Trump's reaction following the 2020 Presidential Election count as "refusing to concede"?