Will the losing candidate in the 2024 presidential election refuse to concede defeat?
Will the losing candidate in the 2024 presidential election refuse to concede defeat?
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1kṀ6799resolved Nov 30
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For the purpose of this question, the losing presidential candidate in 2024 (the "losing candidate") is the major party candidate projected to come in second place in the electoral college vote count by both the AP and Fox News (see fine print).
This question resolves to YES if the losing candidate refuses to concede after at least two weeks following both the AP and Fox News projecting their opponent to win the election AND neither the AP or Fox News retracted their projection in that time. For the purpose of this question, a concession is a clear statement from the candidate projected to lose that they have acknowledged their defeat, and that they accept the results of the election, as projected by the major media outlets. The concession must not be retracted within 48 hours.
Otherwise, this question resolves to NO.
Fine print: For the purpose of this question, a network is said to have "projected" a winner if they make some authoritative statement saying that the candidate has won the election, or will win the election once the votes are counted. Crucially, the network does not actually have to use the language of "projected" but as long as their reporting follows this definition, it counts as a projection.
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@BoltonBailey Was there a two week period during which both Fox News and the AP projected Bush but Al Gore did not acknowledge his defeat? I literally don't know, and am not old enough to remember.
@MatthewBarnett Hmm, wikipedia only says FOX and doesn't mention AP, and says that they retracted later that night, so I guess not.
Roughly speaking:
50% chance Trump wins the GOP primary, 50% he loses the general if he does, and >90% chance he refuses to concede if so. Add to that, the chance a non-Trump republican wins the primary and loses the general is ~25%, and perhaps 50% they'd refuse to concede conditional on that. Perhaps a 5-10% chance a Dem loses and refuses to concede, mostly due to something legitimately contentious (eg 2000-type situation). This all works out to ~40%.
To clarify, would Donald Trump's reaction following the 2020 Presidential Election count as "refusing to concede"?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.