Conditional on us making contact with intelligent extraterrestrial life, how many light years away is it from Earth? | Manifold

Conditional on us making contact with intelligent extraterrestrial life, how many light years away is it from Earth?

Basic

12

Ṁ477

2500

190

expected

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves immediately upon this value being known within 1%.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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1,000

and

3.00

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How are you measuring this distance? Suppose that an alien spaceship comes into our solar system and tells us their home civilization is 500 light years away; would this market resolve to "<1" or "500"?

This market resolving would be a significant LOWER update

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Related questions

Will we detect extraterrestrial intelligent life in the universe by 2124?

Is there extraterrestrial life within 10 light years from the solar system?

Will first contact with extraterrestrial life be initiated by Earthlings?

P(Aliens) - Is there human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?

Will extraterrestrial life be found by 2100?

As of our 2023 light cone, is there extraterrestrial life in the galaxy?

If we ever make contact with extraterrestrial life, would the first contact be on Earth?

There are no aliens or distinguishable alien materials within 100 light-years of Earth.

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Will we make contact with intelligent aliens by 2050?

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