Conditional on being nominated by the Republican party, will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?
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As of right now, electionbettingodds.com has Trump more likely to win the presidential election (39.7%) than the GOP nomination (36.9%). I'm not sure what to think about this.

@ManifoldMarketsUser It's not *necessarily* inconsistent, since there's an outcome where trump loses the nomination, declares an independent run, and the Republican candidate stands down in order to prevent splitting the vote and handing the election to the Democrats. Not very likely imo, though.

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