5 years into its mission, what will be the biggest accomplishments contributed to by JWST?
5 years into its mission, what will be the biggest accomplishments contributed to by JWST?
6
360Ṁ882028
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
54%
11%
Spiral galaxies forming earlier than previously thought
12%
Has observed population III stars (first generation)
23%
Evidence of extraterrestrial life
Resolves to Fibonacci weights based on a combination of:
My opinion
The opinions of the hosts of Astronomy Cast
The opinion of PBS Space Time
The opinion of Dr Becky
The opinion of Scott Manly
The comments below
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.