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Thanks for the pointer.

Background context: Indonesia goes to 1st-round election on 14 February with 3 pairs of P-VP candidates. A single-round election requires a candidate pair to secure more than 50% of the total votes, with at least 20% of the total popular votes.

Currently, several public polls in the past 6 months indicate that:

1. Prabowo-Gibran pairing leading at 46-50%

2. Anies-Muhaimin: 21-25%

3. Ganjar-Mahfud: 21.6%

The question is targeted at understanding if Prabowo-Gibran can sustain this 46-50% lead ahead of the 14 February 2024 presidential elections? The quick count results, which are typically out within 24 hours, are fairly accurate, so we will know the estimated results within 2-3days after 14 February. The real results would come several weeks after the 14 February polls.

Given that we are only interested in predicting the lead in the run-up to the elections, we can close the market by 14 February.

@Lippybiz So if they get 46%+ this resolves NO?

@Weezing That is right. The (generally credible) local quick counts and real count (at 50%+ as of today) are ongoing, all consistently showing Prabowo's lead at 54-60% - this was more than the 46-50% pre-election poll surveys.

Closing now, consider this resolved.

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