Will the Roman Empire make a comeback until EOY 4000?
16
377
330
4000
29%
chance

The relevant timezone of this market is UTC.

A future entity can be considered a Roman Empire by the end of the year 4000 if it satisfies the following criteria:

  • The entity must control a significant and contiguous territory, displaying a level of territorial dominance comparable to the historical Roman Empire at its height.

  • The governance structure should incorporate key features reminiscent of the Roman political system, such as a centralized authority, possibly with elements of a republican or imperial government.

  • The entity should exhibit a cultural influence reflecting the historical Roman Empire, encompassing aspects such as language, legal systems, architecture, and traditions.

  • A standing military force with the capability to project power and maintain control over its territory, drawing parallels with the military prowess of the ancient Roman legions.

  • Economic stability and prosperity, possibly characterized by trade networks, infrastructure development, and the ability to sustain a large population.

  • Adherence to certain political ideals and principles associated with the Roman Empire, such as notions of citizenship, civic duty, and governance structures that may reflect Roman political philosophy.

  • Acknowledgment or connection to the historical legacy of the Roman Empire, whether through symbolic gestures, historical references, or the adoption of Roman symbols and traditions.

  • The international community should recognize the entity as a successor or continuation of the Roman Empire, whether formally or informally.

This is a vibe based market. Every future moderator should feel free to resolve this market based on their view on the resolution criteria.

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bought Ṁ10 NO

'The international community should recognize the entity as a successor or continuation of the Roman Empire, whether formally or informally.' -this part is why I am on NO.

@FakeMoney Manifold is representing the international community and some already consider Russia or the European Union as Roman Empire. 🤣

I think this would be impossible to resolve. There are multiple present states that claim direct succession from Roman empire and fulfill the majority of the criteria here (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Succession_of_the_Roman_Empire).

For instance, Russia claims the succession to Rome through Eastern Roman empire. Continuing the Roman tradition, it's being ruled by an autocratic ruler, and even tries to conquer its neighbors. I think it's impossible to objectively accept or reject this claim.

@OlegEterevsky How can Russia be the Roman empire while van der Leyen is the official Caesar of the 21st century?

btw: "This is a vibe based market."

@OlegEterevsky 😂I can't believe I've watched this. The video discusses who claims the title of the Roman Emperor without holding any power, reducing the question to historic lines.

This market is about the Roman Empire, which is more significant than any individual within it. It represents the fulfillment of glory, transcending any single person or part. Merely having a successor doesn't ensure the same importance, claim the same respect or possess the technological prowess for its citizens. The Roman Empire embodies a future we all aspire to live in.

@Lion we all? I don't aspire to live in the Roman Empire! 😃 as Calgacus said "they make a wasteland and call it peace"

@egroj don't be that guy

@Lion 😂

according to Too Like the Lightning, we're 107 years away from this.

Isn't this the European Union?

@egroj lmfao

@Lion only half-joking:
1. Land at peak under Trajan 5M km^2, current EU 4.2M km^2
2. EU has a Parliament that doesn't do much and a Council (presidents from each member) that is actually the entity making most decisions, similar to the Senate and at some points of the Roman Republic/Empire a Triumvirate or (most times) 2 Augustus and 2 Ceasars. Only difference is that there are more members of the Council.
3. All current main Latin dialects (Spanish, Portuguese, French, Italian and Romanian) are official languages and the rest of dialects (like Catalan, Galician, Occitan, or Sardinian) are also spoken by EU citizens; the legal systems are definitely Roman based; people still build with Roman columns and with a lot of Roman influence; traditions...so many: the calendar, Christianity, public infrastructure, wine
4. NATO is the biggest military force in the world and can definitely maintain control, in the borders technically Sweden and Finland are not part of NATO, but I think they would be defended and they are on the process of joining
5. There is economic stability and prosperity, and Europeans live much better than standard Romans used to, in fact much better than most people in the world outside of the EU
6. There is EU citizenship (even the term citizen comes from Rome); governance structures are definitely Roman too, parliament, etc.
7. Perhaps this one depends a lot in the "acknowledgment" part, but there are definitely symbolic gestures and symbols that we keep from the Roman Empire (handshakes, thumbs up/down, Roman salute but the fascists ruined that one, togas, public parades), plus a bunch of traditions like the ones mentioned in 3.
8. Maybe this one needs a poll and is the one that you can't concede, but I think unofficially it is a continuation.

@egroj I should have said successor in 8. rather than continuation. I don't think anything will be a continuation unless you think that the Roman Empire still exists in some form.

@egroj don't forget that the EU parlament is undemocratic

@egroj I disagree with point 4. NATO isn't EU and it is the strongest force thanks to the US. The France military is good, but UK left and I wouldn't like to rely on Germany, Austria, Italia or Spain.

what do you mean by undemocratic? was the Roman Senate democratic? It's members had to be male citizens with a lot of money.

@Lion NATO isn't EU, but it defends EU (minus a couple of exceptions, but only Sweden and Finland matter), that's Article 5

@egroj democratic: every voter (not human) has the same weighting which isn't the case in the EU parliament, I don't know the exact numbers, but a Cyprus vote has about the same weightting as about 6 French votes

@egroj but I agree, we need a poll: is van der Leyen a 21st century version of Caesar?

@Lion 😂 you know that's clearly not the case. There is nobody that is a single Emperor now, although that was also not true in the Roman Empire between Diocletian and Constantine (with the Tetrarchy), and for some periods after that, especially for the Byzantine Empire. That is why I made the analogy with the EU Council

@egroj it started as joke but I convinced myself lol, I'm betting YES to 45% because there is almost 2000 years before resolution. There could moderators during that time (AIs likely) that agree with points here, see the market and resolve YES. In fact, they could even think that Rome and EU are the same continuous entity in the future. Look at how we see Ancient Egypt now, you ask most people they think about it as single continuous entity, in reality it had three intermediate periods, of hundreds of years each where there was no Dynasty that controlled everything. The period between the fall of Byzantium and the establishment of the EU is "just" about 500 years, the last Intermediate Period in Egypt was about 400 years. People in 2000 years could even think that the Spanish Empire and the British Empire were continuations of Rome because of Christianity.

@egroj I'm just arguing for fun. Don't take it too serious (expect of course the van der leyen = caesar assumption, that is 100% true)

@Lion yeah me too arguing and nerding about the Roman Empire for fun 😂