Who will win Milano - SanRemo 2024 ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น?
Basic
25
แน€30k
resolved Mar 16
100%99.9%
Jasper Philipsen
0.0%
Matej Mohoric
0.0%
Wout van Aert
0.0%
Julian Alaphilippe
0.0%
Filippo Ganna
0.0%
Mark Cavendish
0.0%
Arnaud Demare
0.0%
Tadej Pogacar
0.0%
Mathieu van der Poel
0.0%
Jasper Stuyven
0.0%
Mads Pedersen
0.0%
Christophe Laporte
0.0%
Thomas Pidcock
0.0%Other

The longest monument and most hyped 10 minutes of cycling of the year. It's finish line is 5,4 km from the legendary Poggio. Last year's race was won by Mathieu van der Poel.

Date: 03/16/2024

More information: https://www.milanosanremo.it/en/

Get แน€600 play money

๐Ÿ… Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1แน€484
2แน€386
3แน€276
4แน€88
5แน€25
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reposted

The first monument of the year is live. โค Just 200 boring kilometers to go before the action kicks off.

opened a แน€1,000 Tadej Pogacar NO at 30% order

@egroj I'd buy Pogi NO at 30%. Sadly Horner has too big of an influence on me, otherwise I'd have stayed at 20%. Don't really expect anyone to take my offer. (M$1k)

@Lion 30% seems too high for MSR, but I think Pogi had higher chances than MvdP, and most people here don't agree

@egroj Let's do it in 8 minutes flat and see what happens.

bought แน€1,000 Wout van Aert NO

Wout van Aert won't start, he's at altitude training

opened a แน€500 Mads Pedersen NO at 10% order

Come take my mana!!!!!

@Eliza Fully filled in just one day! Pedersen lovers can now bet him above 10% at will!

sold แน€8 Thomas Pidcock YES

Looks like we have the LRCP approval โค, but none from Chris Horner

opened a แน€200 Mathieu van der Poel NO at 15% order

@Lion I think MvdP should not be the favorite. I have two scenarios:
- Pogi attacks at the Cipressa (maybe there should be a market for that, I put those chances a little bit higher than 50%) and breaks the group, in which case he either wins a la Strade Biache or everything is a mess and it's hard to predict (the most exciting scenario).
- Main favorites get together to Poggio, and then Pogi will try to attack multiple times there. Meanwhile, everyone whose initials are no MvdP will have their plan to go as close behind to MvdP as possible and let him close all of Pogi's attacks. Last couple of years that job was split between MvdP and WvA. This year there's no WvA. At some point MvdP won't be able to close the gap. Then either Pogi makes enough gap to win while other people look at each other, or someone else brave enough to close the gap gets the main group together to the top of the Cipressa. If Pidcock, is there he descends like a madman and wins, or we see a bunch sprint but MvdP gave too much before and can't win.

To make it interesting, I just put an order for NO at 15% for MvdP

opened a แน€500 Mathieu van der Poel NO at 15% order

@egroj @Lion M$200 went fast ๐Ÿ˜‚ bidding it down to 15% and just put another order for M$500

@egroj That is lese-majesty! MvdP is not the favorite...ts... I don't see a way how Pogi wins the race. The Cipressa is too far away, too easy and MvdP too strong. He can follow Pogi there unless he is out of position. (Which is probably the biggest reason why any favorite won't win.) If I were MvdP, I would just follow Pogi the whole day. I see the biggest chance for the outside favorites like, for example, Ganna, Pedersen or Mohoric to steal away while Pogi and MvdP are just looking at each other, and everyone else is looking at them.

@Lion The hopes for Pogacar died last year! It's over.

reposted

There's no way one guy can be 28% to win this dice roll race, right?

bought แน€10 Mathieu van der Poel NO

@Eliza Bought some No shares on MVDP but I want him to win.

bought แน€5 Tadej Pogacar YES

@Eliza easiest one to finish, hardest one to win

@egroj I'd be delighted to see Pogacar win. I'd also be delighted if there is a group of 30 or less at the base of the Poggio. We can dream.

@Eliza me too about Pogacar, but very hard for him, everyone will be at his wheel on the Poggio, but maybe he'll try to go solo at the Cipressa

opened a แน€1,000 Mathieu van der Poel YES at 25% order

@egroj And like every year, nothing ever happens ๐Ÿ˜‚ MSR is boring until Poggio every single year.

I put up a 25%/1k limit order on MVDP, because @Eliza loves to bet against some 'certain user' theories