After hearing about the Israel-Hamas Conflict, I pinged a few friends in Israel and asked if I could help. Surprisingly, one of them said that they'd benefit from the power of prediction markets!
This market resolves positive if all restrictions on educational institutions due to the Israel-Hamas 2023 Conflict are lifted in all of Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, and Haifa by the end of 2023.
@Shump My interpretation is when they actually reopen, with the exception of schools that are unopen solely because the students are at war.
@Linch so universities remaining closed won't make this resolve NO, since their students are recruited? Only elementary through high schools matter for this question?
@YotamFederman I don't really understand the facts on the ground. Are all the students recruited, including women?
@Linch No definitely not. But the main reason they deferred the start of the semester is because many students are recruited. Probably more like 20% though, there's plenty of women, people with exemptions, Arabs, etc.
@Shump yup. I worked as a TA last semester at the Hebrew university and still get staff emails; I think it's something like 30%, here and in other universities. Maybe higher in Tel Aviv university since Hebrew U has a lot of students from east Jerusalem which don't do reserve duty.
"Allowed to" at least in Tel Aviv.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/schools-in-tel-aviv-permitted-by-municipality-to-fully-reopen-but-not-all-can/