Will schools completely reopen in Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, and Haifa by the end of 2023?
Basic
50
Ṁ6018
resolved Jan 4
Resolved
NO

After hearing about the Israel-Hamas Conflict, I pinged a few friends in Israel and asked if I could help. Surprisingly, one of them said that they'd benefit from the power of prediction markets!

This market resolves positive if all restrictions on educational institutions due to the Israel-Hamas 2023 Conflict are lifted in all of Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, and Haifa by the end of 2023.

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predicted NO

@Linch please resolve. Studies at the Technion are still suspended

predicted YES

@Shump Thanks for the reminder! Sorry about the delay.

The Technion is now scheduled to resume studies only on January 7th. That should count as a NO, right? It's not just about the restrictions that the Home Front Command sets, right? It's about when schools actually reopen. I hope so, at least.

bought Ṁ100 NO from 9% to 8%

@Shump Not sure about that, description says it will resolve yes if the restrictions on schools are lifted.

Which is it @Linch?

predicted YES

@Weezing @Shump shoot, I didn't even think about higher ed when betting 😅

HUJI scheduled to start at the 30th, FWIW.

The question is indeed ambiguous - title reads as what will actually happen with schools, but description reads as what are the official restrictions.

predicted YES

@Shump My interpretation is when they actually reopen, with the exception of schools that are unopen solely because the students are at war.

predicted YES

@Linch so universities remaining closed won't make this resolve NO, since their students are recruited? Only elementary through high schools matter for this question?

predicted YES

@YotamFederman I don't really understand the facts on the ground. Are all the students recruited, including women?

predicted NO

@Linch No definitely not. But the main reason they deferred the start of the semester is because many students are recruited. Probably more like 20% though, there's plenty of women, people with exemptions, Arabs, etc.

predicted YES

@Shump yup. I worked as a TA last semester at the Hebrew university and still get staff emails; I think it's something like 30%, here and in other universities. Maybe higher in Tel Aviv university since Hebrew U has a lot of students from east Jerusalem which don't do reserve duty.