I belatedly joined Manifold on September 20th and have made some bets. Inspired by a different question, I'm interested in seeing whether I can make it to Gold in ~40 days.

Please note that I'm an easily distracted person and regularly give up on hobbies, so betting "yes" means you're not just showing faith on my forecasting or betting skills, but on me not being distracted by other toys as well.

If I get promoted to Gold but then regress (and not recover), this question resolves negative.