When will daycares completely reopen in Jerusalem?
When will daycares completely reopen in Jerusalem?
3
370Ṁ280Jan 1
7%
October 11 - October 15
3%
October 16 - October 22
10%
October 23-October 29
28%
October 30- November 30th
10%
December 2023
10%
January 2024
7%
February 2024
7%
March 2024
7%
After 2024
10%Other
After hearing about the Israel-Hamas Conflict, I pinged a few friends in Israel and asked if I could help. Surprisingly, one of them said that they'd benefit from the power of prediction markets!
This market resolves to the date when all daycare restrictions in Jerusalem goes away. (I might fill in more detailed resolution criteria later).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.