Will "Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?" resolve NA?
resolved Jan 1

YES if the linked market resolves NA. NO if any other resolution.

This market is about its ultimate resolution. So if admins reresolve it NA after this resolves NO, this market should also be reresolved YES. I will wait 1 week after the linked market resolves, before resolving this one.

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predicted YES


If Putin is out-of-commissioned (a verb) the market would just resolve NO. What kind of scenarios would cause it to resolve NA?

@8 Fridman's plane out of Moscow goes down in flames, recording is never released :((

@8 In its normal operation, the linked market shouldn't resolve NA. But if there is rulebreaking behavior involved, admins might resolve it NA to discourage it:

  • Lex Fridman could falsely claim to have interviewed Putin to manipulate the market and profit from panic sales, violating Manifold's rules. Then, admins may resolve NA to undo the large losses for people from those trades.

  • Lex Fridman's Youtube channel could get hacked, and a false video posted by someone intending to manipulate the main market.

  • Lex Fridman is about to release his video, but is killed by someone with a large NO position. Admins resolve NA to discourage assassination markets.


@Mira Another hypothetical:

Lex Friedman is held hostage by Putin, and he releases a hostage video that arguably sort of counts as an β€œinterview” between them, maybe? Admins just decide to resolve N/A.

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