Will "Everyone has a plan until they get lied to th..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
2
1kṀ612027
20%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2025 Review resolves in February 2027.
This market will resolve to 100% if the post Everyone has a plan until they get lied to the face is one of the top fifty posts of the 2025 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will "Tell people as early as possible it's not goi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
16% chance
Will "The Plan - 2024 Update" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
9% chance
Will "Optimistic Assumptions, Longterm Planning, an..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
34% chance
Will "Review: Planecrash" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
23% chance
Will "What Goes Without Saying" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
30% chance
Will "What happens if you present 500 people with a..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
12% chance
Will "How I Learned To Stop Trusting Prediction Mar..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
9% chance
Will "What’s the short timeline plan?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "Plans A, B, C, and D for misalignment risk" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
19% chance
Will "How will we update about scheming?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
14% chance