This market resolves YES if during June 13, 2023 (until 23:59:59 local time) protests, riots, social unrest occur in Miami, FL that carry the (political) message of favoring the indicted, attacking the judicial system or similar and that meet one or more of the following criteria, reported through established media reports linked in the comment section until June 15, 2023 (until 23:59:59 local time):
>50'000 participants
>10 security forces injured
one or more members of security forces killed
>50 protesters injured
one or more protesters killed
5 or more fires that firefighters had to put out
1,000
3.00https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/13/us/politics/trump-arraignment-miami-protesters.html
NYT says 500 people. So there is chance there was 1000, but I'm
going to resolve it.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/13/us/politics/trump-arraignment-miami-protesters.html
NYT says 500 people. So there is chance there was 1000, but I'm
going to resolve it.
Another identical market resolved at less than 1000 people.
https://manifold.markets/belikewater/how-many-people-will-show-up-to-the-5c9d6552da8c?r=bWFybmV0
Hmm, I did some research. There might be 100-1000 people at the rally. Any other guesses? Apparently Kari Lake is going. Conservative protests are relatively rare. You'd probably get a higher attendance at a Trump rally. I'm guessing it's the classic case of the police not being able to estimate rally size in advance and they'll over-react due to the Jan 6 insurrection/riot.
Note - it is almost impossible to get a good crowd size estimate if there are more than a couple hundred people. Unless someone is doing really good aerial photography. Organizers love to exaggerate and the police love to under-exaggerate (though maybe that is more true of leftist rallies? I could see the police favoring Trump, and in this case, they might even want to exaggerate the number of people to cover for all the resources they mobilized to police it.)
@AaronKreider I'd love to see more social movement markets! Getting non-biased estimated of the number of people participating in a rally is one thing we could try to do.
And if things get heated, number of arrests. Though that is very hard to predict as the police have the tendency to arbitrarily surround protesters and do mass arrests. It's probably a lot easier to predict the number of people intentionally risking arrest (ex. the School of Americas protests in the 1998-2002 period).
@AaronKreider agreed, if more people here call for removing that arbitrary threshold I shall remove it. Rationale was that police might be overwhelmed according to a couple of media reports: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-updates/trump-indictment/miami-police-prepared-for-crowds-of-5000-to-50000-100018303?id=99913217
@AaronKreider I hoped that "killed' would not imply "die from natural causes", any suggestions on improving the wording?
@LeonardoKroger I'm thinking the risk is a grey area. Where a protestor dies after the police manhandle them (or they knowingly choose to get into a fight with someone). That said, it is probably so small that it doesn't matter. (I haven't researched whether or not anyone is organizing mass protests - I just know that the last time Trump was indicted I saw shots of 5-20 people protesting in NYC which is very few).
@BTE I'd exclude press and security forces from participants in protests/riots, if there's no convention about the meaning of this term
@Gabrielle fair enough, even if you were ;) note that only one of the criteria needs to be met in order for this market to resolve YES
Tried to balance between a large but peaceful protest and a small but violent one