Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the total number of orbital rocket launches conducted by SpaceX by December 31, 2025, meets or exceeds the specific numerical threshold set for this binary market. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." Launches will be counted based on publicly available data from official SpaceX sources or reputable spaceflight tracking websites, such as the SpaceX website's completed missions log or Wikipedia's "List of Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches". Starship test flights that achieve orbital status will be included in the count.

Background

SpaceX has significantly increased its launch cadence in recent years. In 2023, the company conducted 96 Falcon family vehicle launches. This number rose to 134 Falcon family launches in 2024, along with 4 Starship launches, for a total of 138 orbital missions. For 2025, SpaceX has set an ambitious target of 170 orbital launches. As of October 22, 2025, SpaceX had already conducted 138 missions in the year, matching its 2024 record.

Considerations

For the purpose of this market, a "rocket launch" refers to any orbital launch attempt by a SpaceX-operated vehicle, including Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, and Starship. Suborbital tests, unless specified to achieve orbital parameters and included in orbital launch counts by official sources, will not count towards the total. Past launch statistics from sources like Wikipedia typically combine Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches into a single "Falcon family" count and also separately mention Starship orbital test flights.

判定标准

本市场将根据SpaceX在2026年12月31日之前进行的轨道火箭发射总次数是否达到或超过此二元市场设定的特定数值门槛来判定结果。"是"表示达到或超过该门槛，否则为"否"。发射次数将根据SpaceX官方来源或知名航天追踪网站（如SpaceX官网的任务完成日志 或维基百科的“猎鹰9号和猎鹰重型发射列表”）公开数据进行统计。成功进入轨道的星舰（Starship）试飞将被计入总数。

背景

近年来，SpaceX显著提高了其发射频率。2023年，该公司进行了96次猎鹰系列火箭发射。到2024年，猎鹰系列发射次数增至134次，此外还有4次星舰发射，总计138次轨道任务。对于2025年，SpaceX设定了170次轨道发射的宏伟目标。截至2025年10月22日，SpaceX在该年已执行了138次任务，与2024年的记录持平。展望2026年，SpaceX计划在火星转移窗口期间发射约五艘星舰飞往火星，作为其载人火星任务的先驱。此外，星舰的第12次和第13次飞行测试也预计在2026年进行，其中第13次有望实现首次星舰轨道飞行并尝试塔架捕获。

考量因素

就本市场而言，“火箭发射”指SpaceX运营的任何轨道发射尝试，包括猎鹰9号、猎鹰重型和星舰。除非经官方来源确认达到轨道参数并计入轨道发射总数，否则亚轨道测试将不计入总数。维基百科等来源的过往发射统计数据通常将猎鹰9号和猎鹰重型发射合并为“猎鹰系列”计数，并单独提及星舰轨道测试飞行。