Will a big transformer LM compose these facts without chain of thought by 2026? (harder question version) | Manifold

Will a big transformer LM compose these facts without chain of thought by 2026? (harder question version)

42

1kṀ8455

2026

43%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This is a version of this market with a harder composition question, in case the crux is about the difficulty of the question: https://manifold.markets/LeoGao/will-a-big-transformer-lm-compose-t?r=TGVvR2Fv

The question for this market is "What is the name of the element with an atomic number equal to the sum of the age at which Euler died and the number of faces on a cube?" (Please don't post the answer in the comments to avoid it making its way into a training set.)

All the other rules are the same as the referenced market.

Close date updated to 2026-01-01 3:59 pm

Jan 19, 9:14am: ~~Will a big transformer LM compose these facts without chain of thought by 2026? (hard mode)~~ → Will a big transformer LM compose these facts without chain of thought by 2026? (harder question version)

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