Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the calendar month in which the first official, in-person bilateral summit between the sitting President of the United States and the supreme leader of North Korea (currently Kim Jong Un) begins.

• Definition of a Summit: An in-person meeting between the sitting US President and the supreme leader of North Korea. The meeting must be confirmed by reputable international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, Bloomberg) or official government statements from the White House or North Korean state media (KCNA).

• Timing: The month of the summit is determined by the local time zone of the venue where the meeting physically begins.

• Resolving Overlapping Options:

  • If a summit begins during the month of August 2027, the option "August 2027 or later" will resolve YES.

  • If August 31, 2027 (11:59 PM UTC) passes and no such summit has commenced, the option "No summit will take place by August 31, 2027" will resolve YES, regardless of any summits scheduled or occurring after that date.

Background

In August 2026, reports emerged that US President Donald Trump was pushing aides to explore a face-to-face meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, potentially as early as autumn 2026 or on the sidelines of the APEC summit in November 2026. This potential push followed Trump's decision to order a reduction in joint US-South Korea military exercises to signal openness to renewed nuclear diplomacy. While Trump met Kim three times during his first presidential term (2018–2019), formal diplomatic talks have remained stalled since the 2019 Hanoi summit.