Description and Criteria for Resolving YES or NO:
Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 2040, there is clear evidence that enhanced prosthetics, offering superior abilities compared to natural human limbs (such as agility, strength, or precision), have been developed and are being voluntarily chosen by individuals without medical necessity for limb replacement.
Defining 'Enhanced Prosthetics': Enhanced prosthetics should demonstrably exceed the capabilities of natural human limbs in terms of specific functions like strength, speed, agility, or precision.
Voluntary 'Upgrading': The key indicator for YES resolution is the documented cases of individuals without medical necessity for amputation choosing to replace their natural limbs with these advanced prosthetics.
Source of Verification: Verification should come from credible sources, such as major scientific publications, mainstream media reports, or announcements from recognized medical institutions or technology companies.
NO Resolution: If no such development in prosthetic technology occurs, or there is no evidence of people voluntarily choosing to replace their natural limbs for enhanced functionality, the market will resolve to NO.
Related Questions:
Related questions
Current studies suggest no performance advantage at the moment: https://www.colorado.edu/today/2022/01/05/worlds-fastest-blade-runner-gets-no-competitive-advantage-prostheses-study-shows#:~:text=Amputee%20sprinters%20using%20running%20prostheses,CU%20Boulder%20research%20published%20today.
Does it count if the leg that was replaced was somewhat damaged or low functionality? This is a serious discussion in the paralympics community, so I wanted to ask if that counted or if it’s only the case where an athlete was otherwise already exceptional and decided to amputate to gain an advantage.
Thank you for the comment!
The focus is on voluntary upgrades for enhanced functionality, not on replacing already damaged or low-functionality limbs. So, it's really about cases where people with fully functional limbs choose to replace them with prosthetics for added capabilities, not for medical or rehabilitative reasons.
Reminder that 2040 is as far away from now as 2008. We're not even close to close to the advancements needed in neuroscience and biomedical engineering to even approach parity with our limbs, let alone exceed them