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MANIFOLD
Will Zjednoczona Prawica have an absolute majority in Sejm after next Polish parliamentary elections?
29
Ṁ392Ṁ5.1k
resolved Dec 11
Resolved
NO
Zjednoczona Prawica - current Polish ruling coalition. If the coalition collapse it refers to the political party under the leadership of Jarosław Kaczyński. If JK resigns etc. it refers to the political party with Marek Suski as a member.
Poland
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@Lassuch @traders What happened? Can this resolve?

predictedYES

@EvanDaniel It should resolve NO, similarly to /MrLuke255/will-law-and-justice-party-pis-win

predictedYES

duplicated

predictedYES

I think this market is way too low based on recent pooling https://www.wnp.pl/parlamentarny/sondaze/szokujacy-sondaz-olbrzymi-wzrost-poparcia-dla-pis-tylko-trzy-ugrupowania-w-sejmie,1292.html

(It's not enough to get absolute majority but it's close)

Related https://manifold.markets/MrLuke255/will-law-and-justice-party-pis-win

Will Law and Justice party (PiS) win the majority in Polish parliamentary elections to Sejm in 2023?
20% chance. Results to YES if majority of seats in Sejm will be taken by candidates from PiS electoral comitee lists. Election is planned for October 15th.

arbitrage trade with

Just to be clear - absolute majority just refers to at least 231 MPs?
predictedYES
@FranekZak Yes

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