Will Zjednoczona Prawica have an absolute majority in Sejm after next Polish parliamentary elections?
29
322
393
resolved Dec 11
Resolved
NO
Zjednoczona Prawica - current Polish ruling coalition. If the coalition collapse it refers to the political party under the leadership of Jarosław Kaczyński. If JK resigns etc. it refers to the political party with Marek Suski as a member.
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@Lassuch @traders What happened? Can this resolve?

predicted YES
predicted YES

duplicated

predicted YES

I think this market is way too low based on recent pooling https://www.wnp.pl/parlamentarny/sondaze/szokujacy-sondaz-olbrzymi-wzrost-poparcia-dla-pis-tylko-trzy-ugrupowania-w-sejmie,1292.html

(It's not enough to get absolute majority but it's close)

bought Ṁ20 of YES

arbitrage trade with

sold Ṁ47 of NO
Just to be clear - absolute majority just refers to at least 231 MPs?
predicted YES
@FranekZak Yes