This question attempts to gauge for how long airstrikes will continue, or if there is a chance of them being paused.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, between July 1 and July 7, 2025, there is credible reporting from reputable news organizations confirming that Israel has conducted airstrikes targeting locations within Iran. The airstrikes must be acknowledged by either Israeli or Iranian official sources, or reported by major international news outlets such as Reuters, BBC, or The New York Times. If no such reports are available by the end of July 7, 2025, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

On June 13, 2025, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a significant military campaign targeting over 100 sites in Iran, including nuclear facilities and military installations. This operation resulted in substantial casualties and heightened tensions between the two nations. (en.wikipedia.org) In response, Iran conducted missile strikes against Israeli targets, further escalating the conflict. (en.wikipedia.org) The international community has expressed concern over the potential for ongoing hostilities and their broader implications for regional stability.

Considerations

Given the recent escalation in hostilities, there is a heightened risk of further military actions between Israel and Iran. Traders should monitor official statements from both governments and reports from credible news organizations to assess the likelihood of additional airstrikes occurring within the specified timeframe.

• Update 2025-06-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the purposes of this market, an airstrike is defined as an explosive ordinance intentionally deployed from an aircraft on a target in Iran.