Will we see more "verified human" accounts + increased platform surveillance by the end of 2027?
AI•The Great Logging Off
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Prediction #2 in my "Great Logging Off" market

Meta-market:
https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/how-many-of-my-predictions-in-marke-089c96830000?groupId=KgzUh68PEIltJSzCnmF2

Blog post:
https://www.fortressofdoors.com/ai-markets-for-lemons-and-the-great-logging-off

This resolves YES, if, by the end of 2027, in my sole opinion:

  1. There is a SIGNIFICANT increase in "verified human" verification systems across most online platforms

  2. Compared to ~2020, people become reliant on these systems to tell humans from bots

  3. We see significant increases in platform surveillance technology and methods of all types

    Dec 27, 12:14pm: Will we see an increased premium put on "verified human" accounts + increased platform surveillance by 2027? → Will we see an increased premium put on "verified human" accounts + increased platform surveillance by the end of 2027?

    Dec 27, 12:14pm: Will we see an increased premium put on "verified human" accounts + increased platform surveillance by the end of 2027? → Will we see more "verified human" accounts + increased platform surveillance by the end of 2027?

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let a thousand mind viruses bloom (not just the ones funded by NYT, SBF, and ___)

Smart AI > dumb ppl

Anyone who’s ever looked at twitter signed out must realize even Bard is preferable to normie posting

I think something opposite might happen in the short-term -> an increase in verified AI accounts, and perhaps even laws making it mandatory for it to be revealed that an agent is an AI in a hybrid environment (both human and AI are interacting)

predicts YES

Tyler Cowen agrees:

https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/01/biometrics-will-become-more-important.html

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