Will there be a 10% increase in fatal accidents involving Teslas?
24
760Ṁ1432Jan 1
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I will resolve this YES if there is a statistically significant increase of a magnitude of at least 1.1x in "fatal Tesla accidents per Tesla" -- ie, the number of accidents involving a Tesla in which at least one person dies, divided by the number of Teslas on the road (or the number of Teslas owned if I can't get the "on the road" stat). The spirit of this market is to see if Teslas have become more dangerous since the announcement of the "full self driving beta" or not.
Resolves at the end of 2023 or in the first month in which the metric is high enough.
#Tesla
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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