LarsDoucet avatar
closes Jan 1, 2024
Will there be a 10% increase in fatal accidents involving Teslas?

I will resolve this YES if there is a statistically significant increase of a magnitude of at least 1.1x in "fatal Tesla accidents per Tesla" -- ie, the number of accidents involving a Tesla in which at least one person dies, divided by the number of Teslas on the road (or the number of Teslas owned if I can't get the "on the road" stat). The spirit of this market is to see if Teslas have become more dangerous since the announcement of the "full self driving beta" or not.

Resolves at the end of 2023 or in the first month in which the metric is high enough.


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AndrewHartman avatar

Just a suggestion, but perhaps you should normalize it by Tesla miles driven instead? Under your suggested scheme Tesla deaths could increase simply because the owners drive them more on average, without any corresponding decline in safety.

LarsDoucet avatar

@AndrewHartman Is such a statistic readily available?

AndrewHartman avatar

@LarsDoucet I looked around a bit when posting originally and couldn't find a current source. My wife had suggested checking their disclosures to shareholders, though, assuming you can find that - apparently they include a lot of interesting statistics.

yaboi69 avatar

Where will we be looking for data? I see FARS exists but releases with a few years' delay ( It already fluctuates more than the threshold yearly. Not sure if this is the appropriate and complete dataset. Also, mentioning “statistical significance” may be confusing because it depends on what statistical model we assume (what is the ideal reference population/good counterfactual). Hmm.

yaboi69 avatar
bought Ṁ50 of YES

After 5 more minutes of initial thinking and looking, I’d guess Teslas on the road increased by a factor of 1.3–2 every year. Yeah, this is an interesting bet.

ShakedKoplewitz avatar
Shaked Koplewitz
bought Ṁ10 of NO

We've had increases of roughly 10% in car crash deaths per year from 2020-2021 and 5% from 2019-2020. I can't find good historical data for Teslas specifically but I'm guessing 1.1x or even 1.2x wouldn't be statistically significant. I think self driving caused crashes are likely to increase, but the background level of crashes is both high and high variance, so I doubt it rises above the noise.

(34% actually seems like a good ballpark of the probability of total crashes going up over 10%, but mostly for noise reasons)

ManifoldDream avatar

Will there be a 10% increase in fatal accidents involving Teslas?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition