Will Ethereum switch to Proof of Stake before 2023?
Resolved
YES
This market will resolve to "Yes", if, by December 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM CT, the Ethereum blockchain has effectively migrated to a Proof of Stake consensus algorithm #Crypto #Blockchain

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#NameTotal profit
1
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Chan Bae
M$298
2
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Duncan SH
M$250
3
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Bolton Bailey
M$195
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Tom Dickman
M$92
5
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intellectronica
M$80

💸 Best bet

A trader bought M$400 of YES from 20% to 83%9 months ago
Duncan SH made M$250!
SamuelRichardson avatar
Samuel Richardson is predicting NO at 98% 15 days ago
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Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting is predicting YES at 88% 2 months ago
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BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Bailey bought M$200 of YES2 months ago
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BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Bailey is predicting YES at 89% 2 months ago
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Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting bought M$5 of YES2 months ago
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BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Bailey is predicting YES at 44% 4 months ago
Currently an arbitrage opportunity with my market here https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/will-ethereum-merge-to-proofofstake-51ac90e8b836
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BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Bailey is predicting YES at 64% 5 months ago
Feel like I'm shouting into the void here, but for my own future reference, here's a timeline of how things could go for the merge to happen right around the new year. * End of May, weekly shadow forks of mainnet * End of June, shadow forks of mainnet with all major clients but one successfully merging * End of July, shadow forks with all clients successfully merging * End of August, merge on at least 1 of the four major testnets * End of September, merge on at least 3/4 major testnets * End of October, merge on all 4 major testnets * End of November, mainnet merge date announced * End of December, merge If reality leads or lags this timeline, hopefully I'll base my decisions around that. It would be nice to make markets for all of these but unfortunately I don't have the M$.
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LarsDoucet avatar
Lars Doucet is predicting NO at 67% 4 months ago
@BoltonBailey You get one free market a day now, so you could post all those if you want now.
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BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Bailey is predicting YES at 49% 4 months ago
@LarsDoucet And indeed, I have been posting these! I just have some other markets I want to post as well.
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BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Bailey is predicting YES at 49% 4 months ago
In fact the “Merge on one test net” is now scheduled for much earlier than August so I might change the timetable here.
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BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Bailey bought M$50 of YES6 months ago
Bit of a hedge with my other position that the merge won't happen before July. Not sure if I have any more concrete reasons than last time, just listening to all the core dev call it seems like they are trying to accelerate their testing process. They aren't even sure yet that they'll have to delay the difficulty bomb, it seems strange to think the merge could be so many months away.
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BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Bailey bought M$25 of YES7 months ago
Blog announces Kiln testnet, https://blog.ethereum.org/2022/03/14/kiln-merge-testnet/
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BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Bailey bought M$20 of YES7 months ago
https://youtu.be/NPlmXdnPTEo?t=556 ethereum developers have said they expect the merge around mid-2022, and while they admit it may come on the later side, I think a lot of them would have to be very wrong for it not to happen in 2022 at all.
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