Will Ethereum switch to Proof of Stake before 2023?

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Ṁ111

resolved Sep 15

Resolved

YES

ALL

This market will resolve to "Yes", if, by December 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM CT, the Ethereum blockchain has effectively migrated to a Proof of Stake consensus algorithm #Crypto #Blockchain

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17 Comments

65 Holders

217 Trades

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predicted NO

Well, they did it. I really didn't think they would. Congrats to everyone that bet yes.

@SamuelRichardson I'm so happy I was wrong!

Merge seems to be incoming in like 2 days, so any no bets at this point are bets that the merge is going to have some huge technical disaster, otherwise it seems like a sure thing

predicted YES

🚀💯

bought Ṁ200 of YES

Merge date targeted for September 15th

predicted YES

https://blog.ethereum.org/2022/08/12/finalized-no-36/

bought Ṁ5 of YES

💯pct

Arb: https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/will-ethereum-merge-to-proofofstake-992194438cfd

bought Ṁ30 of YES

https://decrypt.co/105177/ethereum-devs-pencil-in-september-date-for-merge

predicted YES

Currently an arbitrage opportunity with my market here https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/will-ethereum-merge-to-proofofstake-51ac90e8b836

predicted YES

Feel like I'm shouting into the void here, but for my own future reference, here's a timeline of how things could go for the merge to happen right around the new year. * End of May, weekly shadow forks of mainnet * End of June, shadow forks of mainnet with all major clients but one successfully merging * End of July, shadow forks with all clients successfully merging * End of August, merge on at least 1 of the four major testnets * End of September, merge on at least 3/4 major testnets * End of October, merge on all 4 major testnets * End of November, mainnet merge date announced * End of December, merge If reality leads or lags this timeline, hopefully I'll base my decisions around that. It would be nice to make markets for all of these but unfortunately I don't have the M$.

predicted NO

@BoltonBailey You get one free market a day now, so you could post all those if you want now.

predicted YES

@LarsDoucet And indeed, I have been posting these! I just have some other markets I want to post as well.

predicted YES

In fact the “Merge on one test net” is now scheduled for much earlier than August so I might change the timetable here.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

Bit of a hedge with my other position that the merge won't happen before July. Not sure if I have any more concrete reasons than last time, just listening to all the core dev call it seems like they are trying to accelerate their testing process. They aren't even sure yet that they'll have to delay the difficulty bomb, it seems strange to think the merge could be so many months away.

bought Ṁ25 of YES

Blog announces Kiln testnet, https://blog.ethereum.org/2022/03/14/kiln-merge-testnet/

bought Ṁ20 of YES

https://youtu.be/NPlmXdnPTEo?t=556 ethereum developers have said they expect the merge around mid-2022, and while they admit it may come on the later side, I think a lot of them would have to be very wrong for it not to happen in 2022 at all.