Will Ethereum merge to Proof-of-Stake by October?
Oct 2
M$581 bet
This resolves to Yes if the Ethereum mainnet merge happens before the beginning of October.

Bolton Bailey 15 days ago

Another one I should say

PeterBorah bought M$20 of YES15 days ago

The shadow forks continue to go off without a hitch, and today's All Core Devs set a target for merging Ropsten on June 8. People seem to be inferring that means an "all goes well" target for mainnet somewhere around mid-August. The difficulty bomb gets bad around that time too, so there's some incentive to hit that target. Delays are more the norm than the exception in crypto projects of this scale, but it feels like we're in the home stretch, and 30% feels too low.

Peter Berggren is betting YES at 49% 16 days ago

If Manifold is more accurate than Polymarket, why doesn't Polymarket correct itself? Just because Polymarket is built on Polygon doesn't bias it towards being optimistic about Ethereum; if anything, it would be biased towards pessimism about Ethereum, since Ethereum doing so well would cause the price and relevance of Polygon to plummet.

Peter Berggren bought M$25 of YES16 days ago

Still bullish; if Manifold's market was more accurate than Polymarket

M bought M$20 of NO18 days ago

On general assumption that cryptocurrency continues to be dysfunctional.

Zhao Nan is betting NO at 35% 18 days ago

Urgh, no. I'm not buying two different cryptocurrencies and expose myself to crap like metamask just for that. Also, you're right and I was being flippant. There's a good reason I only bet with play money.

Peter Berggren bought M$10 of YES19 days ago

If you're confident that a real-money market is systematically wrong on one of its biggest markets, go bet on it; don't waste your time on Manifold.

Zhao Nan bought M$50 of NO19 days ago

I trusted Polymarket on this one in the past, and it was wrong

Peter Berggren bought M$30 of YES20 days ago

I trust Polymarket on this one.