Will Ethereum merge to Proof-of-Stake by October?
This resolves to Yes if the Ethereum mainnet merge happens before the beginning of October.
The shadow forks continue to go off without a hitch, and today's All Core Devs set a target for merging Ropsten on June 8. People seem to be inferring that means an "all goes well" target for mainnet somewhere around mid-August. The difficulty bomb gets bad around that time too, so there's some incentive to hit that target. Delays are more the norm than the exception in crypto projects of this scale, but it feels like we're in the home stretch, and 30% feels too low.
If Manifold is more accurate than Polymarket, why doesn't Polymarket correct itself? Just because Polymarket is built on Polygon doesn't bias it towards being optimistic about Ethereum; if anything, it would be biased towards pessimism about Ethereum, since Ethereum doing so well would cause the price and relevance of Polygon to plummet.