Will Ethereum merge to Proof-of-Stake by October?

https://blog.ethereum.org/2022/08/24/mainnet-merge-announcement/

It is decided.

https://fortune.com/2022/08/11/ethereum-merge-date-estimate-developers-september/#:~:text=The%20Ethereum%20mainnet%20merge%20has,for%20around%20September%2015th%2F16th.&text=Following%20the%20announcement%20of%20the,Ethereum%20community%20erupted%20with%20excitement.

predicted NO

@Gigacasting from your own link...

Nonetheless, many factors may change that timeframe; the developers made clear that the timing is an estimate and nothing is finalized yet.

The tentative timeline is currently merge in late September. I think it's likely this resolves YES, but not >80% likely.

Another one I should say

@PeterBorah one of my markets you might be interested in https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/will-a-major-ethereum-testnet-have

The shadow forks continue to go off without a hitch, and today's All Core Devs set a target for merging Ropsten on June 8. People seem to be inferring that means an "all goes well" target for mainnet somewhere around mid-August. The difficulty bomb gets bad around that time too, so there's some incentive to hit that target. Delays are more the norm than the exception in crypto projects of this scale, but it feels like we're in the home stretch, and 30% feels too low.

predicted YES

If Manifold is more accurate than Polymarket, why doesn't Polymarket correct itself? Just because Polymarket is built on Polygon doesn't bias it towards being optimistic about Ethereum; if anything, it would be biased towards pessimism about Ethereum, since Ethereum doing so well would cause the price and relevance of Polygon to plummet.

Still bullish; if Manifold's market was more accurate than Polymarket

On general assumption that cryptocurrency continues to be dysfunctional.

predicted NO

Urgh, no. I'm not buying two different cryptocurrencies and expose myself to crap like metamask just for that. Also, you're right and I was being flippant. There's a good reason I only bet with play money.

If you're confident that a real-money market is systematically wrong on one of its biggest markets, go bet on it; don't waste your time on Manifold.

I trusted Polymarket on this one in the past, and it was wrong

I trust Polymarket on this one.

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