Will China inspecting ships in the Taiwan strait escalate to an armed conflict before 2024?
16
310Ṁ10kresolved Jan 2
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Context:
https://twitter.com/BonnieGlaser/status/1643800651929976834
If this escalates to an armed conflict in which either China or Taiwan fires any kind of lethal munition in the other's direction (warning shots count), this market resolves YES.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ39 | |
| 2 | Ṁ28 | |
| 3 | Ṁ22 | |
| 4 | Ṁ22 | |
| 5 | Ṁ21 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Will China institute a naval blockade of Taiwan before the end of 2025?
11% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2025?
7% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2025?
7% chance
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2025?
10% chance
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2028?
42% chance
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?
25% chance