Will Axie Infinity's $SLP token be worth less than $0.01 USD (1 cent) by February 1, 2022?
Resolved
YES
Feb 1
M$1,791 bet
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by January 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM CT, Axie Infinity's Smooth Love Potion ($SLP) token trades for less than $0.01 USD. For the avoidance of doubt, the price in USD must be less than $0.01 USD at the time of closing, not temporarily dipping below that price before then and then recovering. For adjudicating the price in USD, we will accept agreement of two out of three of the following sites: Coin Market Cap, Coinbase, Coingecko, specifically these three URL's: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/smooth-love-potion/ https://www.coinbase.com/price/smooth-love-potion https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/smooth-love-potion Which is to say, if any two of these sites agree that the price is below $0.01 USD at the time of closing, the market resolves to "Yes." Dec 29, 1:10pm: "not temporarily dipping below that price before then and then recovering." --> "not *simply* temporarily dipping below that price". It's okay if it dips below and recovers so long as it also goes on to be below the price at closing. The point is that it has to be below the given price AT the time of closing. #Blockchain #Gaming #AxieInfinity #Economics #Crypto Feb 1, 12:58am: CLOSING NOTES This was ridiculously close. In the final hours, the price surged to just over $0.01 by *thousandths of a cent* and then plunged RIGHT at midnight. The three sites slightly disagree as to when. CoinMarketCap says unambiguously that it was < $0.01 at closing time: https://i.imgur.com/vXMw9SQ.png CoinGecko says unambiguously that it was > $0.01 at closing time, by *twelve ten-thousandths of a cent*: https://i.imgur.com/6lbzyy6.png (five minutes later CoinGecko reported it as < $0.01) This brings us to CoinBase to break the tie. It gives us a price of EXACTLY $0.0100 an hour and a half before closing: https://i.imgur.com/emofmFS.png But going to the hourly view we get $0.0099 half an hour AFTER closing: https://i.imgur.com/y0iUZ6q.png So how do we resolve this? There's two ways to fairly interpret CoinBase: - Take the closest of the two data points to midnight - Average the two data points Either method would result in a value < $0.01 Given this evidence, I think I am being fair and honest and sticking to the letter of my own criteria by resolving this as YES. I'm kind of astounded by the sheer closeness of this photo finish.
LarsDoucet

Lars Doucet 4 months ago

Just leaving a comment here before I close -- this was ridiculous close. In the final hours, the price surged to just over $0.01 by *thousandths of a cent* and then plunged RIGHT at midnight. The three sites slightly disagree as to when. CoinMarketCap says unambiguously that it was < $0.01 at closing time: https://i.imgur.com/vXMw9SQ.png CoinGecko says unambiguously that it was > $0.01 at closing time, by *twelve ten-thousandths of a cent*: https://i.imgur.com/6lbzyy6.png (five minutes later CoinGecko reported it as < $0.01) This brings us to CoinBase to break the tie. It gives us a price of EXACTLY $0.0100 an hour and a half before closing: https://i.imgur.com/emofmFS.png But going to the hourly view we get $0.0099 half an hour AFTER closing: https://i.imgur.com/y0iUZ6q.png So how do we resolve this? There's two ways to fairly interpret CoinBase: - Take the closest of the two data points to midnight - Average the two data points Either method would result in a value < $0.01 Given this evidence, I think I am being fair and honest and sticking to the letter of my own criteria by resolving this as YES. I'm kind of astounded by the sheer closeness of this photo finish.
LarsDoucet

Lars Doucet 4 months ago

Dipped below the 1 cent mark 7 times or so in the last 24 hours: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/smooth-love-potion/ The announcement of their $RON token doesn't seem to have had a positive effect on Axie itself, but the opposite: https://twitter.com/AxieInfinity/status/1486676113879408644
LarsDoucet

Lars Doucet 4 months ago

We're at $0.01216, two tenths of a cent to go to hit the target. https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/smooth-love-potion/ Meanwhile crypto in general, which is all massively correlated, is super down ($BTC too). The crash has wiped out over $1Trillion in market value https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/status/1484619425328381955
LarsDoucet

Lars Doucet 4 months ago

SLP just hit $0.0156, it hasn't been this low since mid 2020. https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/smooth-love-potion/ That said they just dropped a new Axie Burn mechanic, who knows if that's enough to prop up token prices until the end of the month https://cryptonewsland.com/50k-axies-burned-after-axie-infinity-launches-lunacian-express/
LarsDoucet

Lars Doucet 4 months ago

SLP just hit $0.0168, the lowest price it's been at in basically a year, and close to an all-time low price https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/smooth-love-potion/
LarsDoucet

Lars Doucet 4 months ago

Update -- we've dropped about 12% in less than day, pretty much undoing the post-update spike. Now we see if it keeps dropping before February or not. https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/smooth-love-potion/
LarsDoucet

Lars Doucet 4 months ago

Update on this: $AXS token has spent 6 out of the 16 days of January so far at below $75 USD. $AXS token value more or less represents long term faith in Axie Infinity in general (although it is also consumed as a breeding fee, so demand for new axies drives its price too). It tends to go up whenever they release a new update on their blog. A new blog post was released yesterday: https://axie.substack.com/p/axie-january-development-update In it they confirm that neither of the new planned updates (Land Gameplay or Axie: Origin aka "Battles v2") will be releasing imminently. The current timeline is "in the coming months" -- so 2 more months at minimum, more likely nothing before Q2 2022. As my colleagues and I laid out in our report [1], the current version of Axie Infinity is dependent on sustained user growth to prop up its asset values. From the looks of it, the Axie Infinity ecosystem will consist of nothing but their legacy game until Q2 2022 at the earliest. [1] https://naavik.co/business-breakdowns/axie-infinity That said, what about $SLP? SLP is the utility token, mostly spent on breeding. Demand for new Axies is what typically drives the value of SLP. SLP like AXS tends to pump short term whenever they drop a new blog post comes out, which just happened. $SLP started January at a price of $0.027, and has gotten as low as $0.0175 since. Just today it's surged back up to $0.020, but it's still down from where it was a month ago ($0.033). https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/smooth-love-potion/ We are seeing reports that the "floor price" of Axies (the cheapest price you can get for the worst virtual critters) has dropped considerably, allegedly because bot networks are giving up on the game and dumping their livestock. Bottom line, if demand for Axies collapses, so will the value of SLP as the only current reason to purchase SLP is to breed new Axies. If players believe that Axies will become more valuable in the future, then they will be willing to pay more for Axies, and they will be more willing to breed new Axies, and thus demand for SLP will grow. Currently there is significant uncertainty and the latest blog post tells us two crucial things: - The new gameplay modes (Land and Axie Origin/Battles v2) will not launch for several months at least - The team is spending a lot of time focusing on graphics (they had previously revealed out of nowhere that the Land Gameplay would be 3D rather than the 2D experience everyone was expecting) A sudden switch to improved graphical fidelity, in my experience as a game designer, signifies further delays. My TL;DR as an analyst- 1) As described in my report, I do not believe that either of the new gameplay modes will save Axie, in fact if they are implemented as described they will introduce new problems (Land in particular) 2) The current legacy game is unsustainable and the founders themselves have admitted this explicitly on multiple occasions 3) The value of Axie's tokens is dependent on hope in the future 4) Even if I am wrong about the upcoming gameplay modes, they do not seem like they will launch soon 5) Axie faces tremendous well funded competition from all sides and may not have the luxury of time buuuuuuuut The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. It's not a certainty yet whether SLP will go below $0.01 before *next month*