Will a financial instrument similar to Robin Hanson's Robots-Took-Most-Jobs Insurance be available before 2024?
Basic
16
Ṁ1081
Jan 1
5%
chance

https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/robots-took-most-jobs-insurance

A) Carefully define the key event E of “automation suddenly takes most jobs”. Maybe “labor force participation rate falls from >35% to <10% in <10 years by date D”.

B) Collect some common financial assets A likely to retain value both after such an event, and also if that event never happens. Such as stocks, bonds, real estate.

C) Split these assets A into “A if E” and “A if not E”. This split can be done with no risk. 

D) Sell the “A if E” assets to workers. The more they buy, the better insured they are against the risk of E.

E) Sell the “A if not E” assets to any willing investors. Buyers here are in effect selling this insurance.

F) When the event E happens, “A if E” assets turn into A assets, which can then be sold off to pay for ex-worker living expenses. If E seems likely to happen soon, “A if E” assets can also be sold at that time to pay for living expenses.

G) As date D approaches, workers switch to buying assets with later dates D’.

H) If deadline D comes without E ever having happened, “A if not E” assets turn into A assets, giving its investors a higher return than if they’d just bought A.

Resolves to YES if a substantially similar financial instrument to this exists and normal people can buy/sell it before 2024.

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🧠

Imagine thinking bloated monstrosities will have value after workers don’t (can’t imagine!)

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