At the end of the year I will look for the closest metric that captures the spirit of this market. Examples would be:
A Gallup poll that asks registered Republicans & Democrats whether they approve/disapprove of OpenAI
An independent survey that asks people whether they approve/disapprove of GPT specifically, and buckets them by left/right political affiliation
OpenAI, GPT, or Sam Altman, or LLM's in general, will all qualify as subject matter (but NOT some other specific major LLM alone)
"Left Wing" will be defined as whatever is best available in the qualifying studies/surveys/polls. Examples include:
Registered Democrats
Self-identified Democrats
"Liberals"
"Leftists"
Self-identified as being on the left
Basically anything that generally means "left of center."
Or anything else sufficiently similar. Resolves N/A if I can't find anything like that at the end of the year. At the end of the year I will take the latest available qualifying metric, such as a poll published in November 2023, for instance. If there's multiple qualifying metrics published within a reasonably close time period, I will average their results.
If it was GPT by itself I think it would have relatively high approval ratings. I think approval ratings generally for a company that was meant to be not for profit and also competes with humans for jobs and will likely have negative hit pieces on them will lower it's approval with the left.
Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Lars "Land is a Big Deal" Doucet
What will the "approval rating" of GPT/OpenAI be among "The Left Wing" of the USA at the end of 2023? https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/what-will-the-approval-rating-of-gp-2b86733bda3a