This market resolves YES if three things happen to US average 30-year mortgage rates:
Linger close to 7% in the first quarter (read: no lower than 6.9%)
End the year lower than they started
Rates stay above 6% by the end of the year
If any of the three conditions fails this market resolves NO.
Context:
Redfin made seven predictions for 2024, I'm mirroring them here:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-predictions-2024/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=earnedsocial&utm_campaign=1029869
Related questions
@Tyler31 Any significant amount of time below 6.9 in Q1 counts. A short dip that recovers doesn’t count if the trend stays stable.
@LarsDoucet Is there a reason this can't already resolve then, since it spent most of Q1 below 6.9? Or are you waiting for Redfin's data?
I believe this is already a NO. They used Freddie Mac PMMS: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
Which has 30 year rates at 6.64% (much less than 6.9%), and we're still declining in Q1.
