6
59
130
386
per share

Yes = Buy
No = Short
This is a permanent market and its duration will be lengthened as long as it's allowed. The aim is to sell your stock (see top right after you've made a bet) when you believe your side has over-corrected and buy in/short it again once it's over-corrected to the other side. Essentially, it's meant to function like a traditional stock market.

Read more: https://help.manifold.markets/manifold-101/why-would-you-sell-your-shares

Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:
predicts SHORT

I love Japan, out of the 15 countries I've been to it was by far my favorite.

Despite that, "demographics is destiny" as they say, and Japan's demographics are bad. The median age is 48.4 [1], compared to a global average of 30 [2]. The population has already fallen by over 2% since its peak in 2008, and is expected to drop by another 44% by 2060 [3].

And even if it somehow manages to offset these catastrophic drops through massive immigration (something it's shown no interest in doing to date), it will change the culture into something unrecognizable from what it is now.

So whether it's through demographic collapse or immigration dramatically warping the culture, Japan as we know it today does not have a bright future...

[1] https://www.worldeconomics.com/Demographics/Median-Age/Japan.aspx#:~:text=Median%20age%20is%20the%20age,global%20value%20of%2030.3%20years.

[2] https://ourworldindata.org/age-structure#:~:text=The%20global%20median%20age%20has,bracket%20between%2025%20and%206

[3] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Japan#Population