If Russia starts a new offensive in Q1 2023, within one month will they take and hold 5% more territory than they held on January 1st 2023?
27
127
530
resolved Aug 30
Resolved
NO

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ144
2Ṁ115
3Ṁ57
4Ṁ48
5Ṁ41
Sort by:

Took another look at all the evidence everyone posted and yeah, this obviously resolves NO.

bought Ṁ180 of NO

the Brookings index here suggests ~no change this year: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/ukraine-index/ (the visuals are messed up for me, but I can download data in the box with the header "There have been no significant net territorial gains for either side since November" "Percentage of Ukraine held by Russia")

can u take a look at this please @LarsDoucet

@DavidChee It looks like a no but I’ll count pixels tonight to be sure

@LarsDoucet lmfao thanks

bought Ṁ200 of NO

Russia started a new campaign on January 21st.

On January 2nd, this was the map of Ukraine per ISW:

On February 21st, this was the map of Ukraine per ISW:

Here is a different, side by side view of them.


I've clicked back and forth and doubt there is a five percent increase in the red shaded area. Nevertheless, I have tried for 30 minutes and cannot find a way to measure sqkm controlled.

@LarsDoucet

@RobertCousineau Looks like a pretty clear no resolution to me, but I’ll count pixels tonight to be sure

Shouldn't have resolved by now? (as NO)

What if they take it and lose it within Q1?